Temperature projections and heatwave attribution scenarios over India: A systematic review

Temperature projections and heatwave attribution scenarios over India: A systematic review

2024 | Khaiwal Ravindra, Sanjeev Bhardwaj, Chhotu Ram, Akshi Goyal, Vikas Singh, Chandra Venkataraman, Subhash C. Bhan, Ranjeet S. Sokhi, Suman Mor
This review article examines the projected impacts of rising global temperatures on heatwaves in India and provides insights into mitigation and adaptation strategies. It highlights the increasing frequency, intensity, and duration of heatwaves, which are expected to worsen due to climate change. Heatwaves can exacerbate chronic health conditions, vector-borne diseases, air pollution, and droughts, leading to higher mortality and morbidity. The study uses climate models and statistical approaches to characterize heat extremes and improve projections. It also appraises past, present, and future heatwave trends, noting that most studies use CMIP5 models and RCP scenarios, with limited use of CMIP6. The study finds that temperature could rise by ±1.2°C to ±3.5°C by the end of the 21st century, with projections varying based on emission scenarios. The findings aim to identify regions most vulnerable to heatwave risk and provide actionable projections for policymakers. The review emphasizes the need for high-resolution modeling and interdisciplinary approaches to address heat-health impacts and human influence. It also stresses the importance of localized adaptation strategies and transdisciplinary collaborations to enhance predictive capabilities and heat mitigation in India. The study underscores the need for granular projections focused on central and northern regions to inform adaptation strategies. The review highlights the importance of understanding the complex interactions between climate, social factors, and heatwave impacts to develop robust, evidence-based policies and strategies to build resilience and protect vulnerable populations from the adverse effects of climate change and extreme temperature events.This review article examines the projected impacts of rising global temperatures on heatwaves in India and provides insights into mitigation and adaptation strategies. It highlights the increasing frequency, intensity, and duration of heatwaves, which are expected to worsen due to climate change. Heatwaves can exacerbate chronic health conditions, vector-borne diseases, air pollution, and droughts, leading to higher mortality and morbidity. The study uses climate models and statistical approaches to characterize heat extremes and improve projections. It also appraises past, present, and future heatwave trends, noting that most studies use CMIP5 models and RCP scenarios, with limited use of CMIP6. The study finds that temperature could rise by ±1.2°C to ±3.5°C by the end of the 21st century, with projections varying based on emission scenarios. The findings aim to identify regions most vulnerable to heatwave risk and provide actionable projections for policymakers. The review emphasizes the need for high-resolution modeling and interdisciplinary approaches to address heat-health impacts and human influence. It also stresses the importance of localized adaptation strategies and transdisciplinary collaborations to enhance predictive capabilities and heat mitigation in India. The study underscores the need for granular projections focused on central and northern regions to inform adaptation strategies. The review highlights the importance of understanding the complex interactions between climate, social factors, and heatwave impacts to develop robust, evidence-based policies and strategies to build resilience and protect vulnerable populations from the adverse effects of climate change and extreme temperature events.
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