This paper addresses the risk assessment of the positioning of a study program (SP) within an Integrated University (IU), using the Engineering Management (EM) program at the Technical Faculty in Bor as a case study. The authors develop a Bayesian model to evaluate the probability of the EM program's position in the future Integrated University of Belgrade (IUB). The model updates the prior probability with evidence nodes (e.g., publication in high-impact journals, international cooperation) to determine the posterior probability. The results show that the EM program has a 99% probability of remaining in the IUB, given its current structure and activities. The model is applicable to any SP and can be used to assess the risk of its position in an IU, considering the number and content of evidence nodes. The study highlights the importance of maintaining and enhancing the program's activities to maintain its position within the IU.This paper addresses the risk assessment of the positioning of a study program (SP) within an Integrated University (IU), using the Engineering Management (EM) program at the Technical Faculty in Bor as a case study. The authors develop a Bayesian model to evaluate the probability of the EM program's position in the future Integrated University of Belgrade (IUB). The model updates the prior probability with evidence nodes (e.g., publication in high-impact journals, international cooperation) to determine the posterior probability. The results show that the EM program has a 99% probability of remaining in the IUB, given its current structure and activities. The model is applicable to any SP and can be used to assess the risk of its position in an IU, considering the number and content of evidence nodes. The study highlights the importance of maintaining and enhancing the program's activities to maintain its position within the IU.