The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP): Protocols and pilot studies

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP): Protocols and pilot studies

2013 | Cynthia Rosenzweig, J. W. Jones, J. L. Hatfield, Alex Ruane, K. J. Thornburn, J. M. Antle, G. C. Nelson, C. Porter, S. Janssen, B. Basso, F. Ewert, D. Wallach, G. Baigorria, and J. M. Winter
The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) is a collaborative effort involving climate, crop, and economic modeling communities to enhance the understanding of climate change impacts on agriculture and improve adaptation strategies. The project aims to improve the characterization of world food security due to climate change and enhance adaptation capacity in both developing and developed countries. AgMIP conducts intercomparisons of crop and economic models, incorporates model improvements, and produces ensemble projections of future agricultural production and its economic consequences. The project is structured into four teams—Climate, Crop Modeling, Economics, and Information Technology—and three Cross-Cutting Themes: Uncertainty, Aggregation and Scaling, and Representative Agricultural Pathways (RAPs). These themes address key issues such as uncertainty in climate scenarios, scaling of model outputs, and the development of consistent agricultural scenarios. Pilot studies demonstrate the effectiveness of AgMIP in assessing climate impacts, including the sensitivity of wheat yield to temperature and CO2, and the sensitivity of projected yield changes to simulation scales. The project also highlights the importance of integrating multi-model assessments to better understand the uncertainties and complexities of climate change impacts on agriculture.The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) is a collaborative effort involving climate, crop, and economic modeling communities to enhance the understanding of climate change impacts on agriculture and improve adaptation strategies. The project aims to improve the characterization of world food security due to climate change and enhance adaptation capacity in both developing and developed countries. AgMIP conducts intercomparisons of crop and economic models, incorporates model improvements, and produces ensemble projections of future agricultural production and its economic consequences. The project is structured into four teams—Climate, Crop Modeling, Economics, and Information Technology—and three Cross-Cutting Themes: Uncertainty, Aggregation and Scaling, and Representative Agricultural Pathways (RAPs). These themes address key issues such as uncertainty in climate scenarios, scaling of model outputs, and the development of consistent agricultural scenarios. Pilot studies demonstrate the effectiveness of AgMIP in assessing climate impacts, including the sensitivity of wheat yield to temperature and CO2, and the sensitivity of projected yield changes to simulation scales. The project also highlights the importance of integrating multi-model assessments to better understand the uncertainties and complexities of climate change impacts on agriculture.
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Understanding The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP)%3A Protocols and Pilot Studies