The article by Mark C. Serreze and Jennifer A. Francis discusses the debate surrounding Arctic amplification, the phenomenon where surface air temperatures (SATs) in the Arctic are expected to rise more than in other regions due to the loss of sea ice. Observations show recent warming trends, but the enhanced Arctic Ocean signal is not immediately evident. This discrepancy, combined with varying model projections and large variability in observed SATs over the 20th century, has led to questions about the concept of Arctic amplification. However, when comparing observed trajectories to near-future simulations (2010–2029), a preconditioning phase of Arctic amplification is observed, characterized by the initial retreat and thinning of sea ice. Observations align with these features, but SATs over the Arctic Ocean remain constrained by the insulating effects of ice cover and thermal inertia of the upper ocean. Given the consistency with model projections, the authors suggest that we are likely near the threshold where summer solar radiation absorption limits ice growth, initiating a feedback loop that will significantly increase Arctic Ocean SATs. The debate revolves around differing model projections, low-frequency variability, and the role of natural atmospheric modes such as the Northern Annular Mode (NAM) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO).The article by Mark C. Serreze and Jennifer A. Francis discusses the debate surrounding Arctic amplification, the phenomenon where surface air temperatures (SATs) in the Arctic are expected to rise more than in other regions due to the loss of sea ice. Observations show recent warming trends, but the enhanced Arctic Ocean signal is not immediately evident. This discrepancy, combined with varying model projections and large variability in observed SATs over the 20th century, has led to questions about the concept of Arctic amplification. However, when comparing observed trajectories to near-future simulations (2010–2029), a preconditioning phase of Arctic amplification is observed, characterized by the initial retreat and thinning of sea ice. Observations align with these features, but SATs over the Arctic Ocean remain constrained by the insulating effects of ice cover and thermal inertia of the upper ocean. Given the consistency with model projections, the authors suggest that we are likely near the threshold where summer solar radiation absorption limits ice growth, initiating a feedback loop that will significantly increase Arctic Ocean SATs. The debate revolves around differing model projections, low-frequency variability, and the role of natural atmospheric modes such as the Northern Annular Mode (NAM) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO).