(2022)3:168 | Mika Rantanen, Alexey Yu. Karpechko, Antti Lipponen, Kalle Nordling, Otto Hyvärinen, Kimmo Ruosteenoja, Timo Vihma, Ari Laaksonen
The Arctic has warmed nearly four times faster than the global average since 1979, according to a study using multiple observational datasets. This four-fold amplification is higher than generally reported in literature and is an extremely rare event in climate model simulations. The study compares observed Arctic amplification with simulated values from state-of-the-art climate models, finding that the observed ratio is significantly higher than what models typically simulate. The discrepancy suggests that either the observed amplification is extremely unlikely or that climate models systematically underestimate the amplification. The study also highlights the importance of internal climate variability and the role of sea ice loss in driving the Arctic's rapid warming.The Arctic has warmed nearly four times faster than the global average since 1979, according to a study using multiple observational datasets. This four-fold amplification is higher than generally reported in literature and is an extremely rare event in climate model simulations. The study compares observed Arctic amplification with simulated values from state-of-the-art climate models, finding that the observed ratio is significantly higher than what models typically simulate. The discrepancy suggests that either the observed amplification is extremely unlikely or that climate models systematically underestimate the amplification. The study also highlights the importance of internal climate variability and the role of sea ice loss in driving the Arctic's rapid warming.