The Arctic has warmed nearly four times faster than the globe since 1979

The Arctic has warmed nearly four times faster than the globe since 1979

2022 | Mika Rantanen, Alexey Yu. Karpechko, Antti Lipponen, Kalle Nordling, Otto Hyvärinen, Kimmo Ruosteenoja, Timo Vihma & Ari Laaksonen
The Arctic has warmed nearly four times faster than the globe since 1979, according to a study using multiple observational datasets. This finding contrasts with previous estimates, which generally reported a warming rate of twice or more than twice the global average. The study compared observed Arctic amplification ratios with those simulated by climate models, finding that the observed four-fold warming ratio over 1979–2021 is extremely rare in climate model simulations. The observed and simulated amplification ratios are more consistent when calculated over longer periods, though observational uncertainties before 1979 obscure this comparison. The study highlights that the Arctic warming rate is a robust fact, with Arctic amplification (AA) evident in both observations and climate models. Factors contributing to AA include reduced sea ice, enhanced oceanic heating, and feedback mechanisms like ice-albedo and cloud feedback. The study also notes that reduced air pollution in Europe and potential reductions in Asian aerosols could influence future AA. The study found that the Arctic has warmed significantly faster than the globe, with some regions warming up to seven times faster. This is attributed to reduced cold-season ice cover and changes in atmospheric circulation. However, climate models generally underestimate the observed AA, suggesting either an extremely unlikely event or systematic underestimation by models. The study also found that the observed AA is outside the spread of CMIP5 models but falls within the CMIP6 ensemble spread. The likelihood of the observed AA in CMIP6 models is very low, indicating that the recent Arctic amplification is either extremely unlikely or that models systematically underestimate AA. The study emphasizes the importance of considering internal climate variability and model uncertainties in assessing AA. The results suggest that climate models need improvement in simulating Arctic amplification, particularly in capturing the rapid warming observed in recent decades. The study calls for further investigation into the mechanisms behind AA and their representation in climate models to improve future climate projections.The Arctic has warmed nearly four times faster than the globe since 1979, according to a study using multiple observational datasets. This finding contrasts with previous estimates, which generally reported a warming rate of twice or more than twice the global average. The study compared observed Arctic amplification ratios with those simulated by climate models, finding that the observed four-fold warming ratio over 1979–2021 is extremely rare in climate model simulations. The observed and simulated amplification ratios are more consistent when calculated over longer periods, though observational uncertainties before 1979 obscure this comparison. The study highlights that the Arctic warming rate is a robust fact, with Arctic amplification (AA) evident in both observations and climate models. Factors contributing to AA include reduced sea ice, enhanced oceanic heating, and feedback mechanisms like ice-albedo and cloud feedback. The study also notes that reduced air pollution in Europe and potential reductions in Asian aerosols could influence future AA. The study found that the Arctic has warmed significantly faster than the globe, with some regions warming up to seven times faster. This is attributed to reduced cold-season ice cover and changes in atmospheric circulation. However, climate models generally underestimate the observed AA, suggesting either an extremely unlikely event or systematic underestimation by models. The study also found that the observed AA is outside the spread of CMIP5 models but falls within the CMIP6 ensemble spread. The likelihood of the observed AA in CMIP6 models is very low, indicating that the recent Arctic amplification is either extremely unlikely or that models systematically underestimate AA. The study emphasizes the importance of considering internal climate variability and model uncertainties in assessing AA. The results suggest that climate models need improvement in simulating Arctic amplification, particularly in capturing the rapid warming observed in recent decades. The study calls for further investigation into the mechanisms behind AA and their representation in climate models to improve future climate projections.
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Understanding The Arctic has warmed nearly four times faster than the globe since 1979