This paper by Robert F. Engle, titled "The Econometrics of Ultra-High Frequency Data," explores the analysis of ultra-high frequency data, which are complete transactions that occur at random times. The author uses marked point processes as a theoretical framework to analyze such data sets. The Autoregressive Conditional Duration (ACD) model, developed by Engle and Russell, is applied to IBM stock transactions data to estimate semi-parametric hazard functions and measures of instantaneous conditional variances. The results show that longer durations are negatively influenced by the market microstructure literature.
The paper begins with an introduction to the concept of ultra-high frequency data and the challenges of analyzing such data, emphasizing the irregular spacing of observations. It then formulates economic questions in a statistical framework, defining the data as pairs of transaction times and observed marks (e.g., volume, price, bid/ask prices). The economic hypotheses and measures of interest are expressed in terms of the joint density function of these variables.
The econometric issues discussed include specifying and testing the parameters of the functions defining the joint density. The paper proposes a maximum likelihood approach, with a focus on semiparametric hazard estimation using the quasi-likelihood function. This method does not require parameterizing the density of the transaction times but specifies the mean of the durations.
The paper applies these methods to IBM stock transactions data, analyzing the hazard function and price volatility. The results show that longer durations are associated with lower volatility, supporting the Easley and O'Hara model. The analysis also reveals strong autocorrelation in the mean and time-varying volatility, with longer durations having a negative impact on expected volatility.
The paper concludes by summarizing the framework for estimating models when data arrive at random intervals, emphasizing the importance of modeling the associated marks and times separately. The findings highlight the impact of transaction timing on price volatility and provide insights into market microstructure.This paper by Robert F. Engle, titled "The Econometrics of Ultra-High Frequency Data," explores the analysis of ultra-high frequency data, which are complete transactions that occur at random times. The author uses marked point processes as a theoretical framework to analyze such data sets. The Autoregressive Conditional Duration (ACD) model, developed by Engle and Russell, is applied to IBM stock transactions data to estimate semi-parametric hazard functions and measures of instantaneous conditional variances. The results show that longer durations are negatively influenced by the market microstructure literature.
The paper begins with an introduction to the concept of ultra-high frequency data and the challenges of analyzing such data, emphasizing the irregular spacing of observations. It then formulates economic questions in a statistical framework, defining the data as pairs of transaction times and observed marks (e.g., volume, price, bid/ask prices). The economic hypotheses and measures of interest are expressed in terms of the joint density function of these variables.
The econometric issues discussed include specifying and testing the parameters of the functions defining the joint density. The paper proposes a maximum likelihood approach, with a focus on semiparametric hazard estimation using the quasi-likelihood function. This method does not require parameterizing the density of the transaction times but specifies the mean of the durations.
The paper applies these methods to IBM stock transactions data, analyzing the hazard function and price volatility. The results show that longer durations are associated with lower volatility, supporting the Easley and O'Hara model. The analysis also reveals strong autocorrelation in the mean and time-varying volatility, with longer durations having a negative impact on expected volatility.
The paper concludes by summarizing the framework for estimating models when data arrive at random intervals, emphasizing the importance of modeling the associated marks and times separately. The findings highlight the impact of transaction timing on price volatility and provide insights into market microstructure.