October 25, 2016 | Rein M. G. J. Houben, Peter J. Dodd
A new study re-estimates the global burden of latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) using mathematical modeling. The study finds that as of 2014, approximately 1.7 billion people, or about 23%, were latently infected with Mycobacterium tuberculosis globally. This estimate is significantly higher than the previously cited "one-third" of the global population. The highest prevalence of LTBI is found in the WHO Southeast Asia, Western Pacific, and Africa regions, which account for around 80% of all LTBI cases. The study also estimates that about 56 million people are at high risk of developing active TB disease due to recent infection, with 11% of these individuals infected with isoniazid-resistant strains. If left unaddressed, the current LTBI burden alone would result in TB incidence rates of 16.5 per 100,000 per year in 2035 and 8.3 per 100,000 per year in 2050, exceeding the 2050 elimination target of 1 per 100,000 per year. The study uses a combination of direct and indirect data sources to estimate annual risk of infection (ARI) and applies these estimates to demographic data to calculate the number of individuals infected. The study highlights the need for new tools to improve diagnosis and treatment of LTBI to address the latent reservoir and achieve the 2050 TB elimination target. The findings underscore the importance of addressing LTBI as part of the End TB Strategy.A new study re-estimates the global burden of latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) using mathematical modeling. The study finds that as of 2014, approximately 1.7 billion people, or about 23%, were latently infected with Mycobacterium tuberculosis globally. This estimate is significantly higher than the previously cited "one-third" of the global population. The highest prevalence of LTBI is found in the WHO Southeast Asia, Western Pacific, and Africa regions, which account for around 80% of all LTBI cases. The study also estimates that about 56 million people are at high risk of developing active TB disease due to recent infection, with 11% of these individuals infected with isoniazid-resistant strains. If left unaddressed, the current LTBI burden alone would result in TB incidence rates of 16.5 per 100,000 per year in 2035 and 8.3 per 100,000 per year in 2050, exceeding the 2050 elimination target of 1 per 100,000 per year. The study uses a combination of direct and indirect data sources to estimate annual risk of infection (ARI) and applies these estimates to demographic data to calculate the number of individuals infected. The study highlights the need for new tools to improve diagnosis and treatment of LTBI to address the latent reservoir and achieve the 2050 TB elimination target. The findings underscore the importance of addressing LTBI as part of the End TB Strategy.