This paper explores the potential economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic using a global hybrid DSGE/CGE model. The authors, Warwick McKibbin and Roshen Fernando, develop seven scenarios to assess how the disease might evolve and its economic consequences. The scenarios range from a contained outbreak to a global pandemic, with varying levels of mortality and morbidity rates. The study finds that even a contained outbreak could significantly impact the global economy in the short run, with potential GDP losses ranging from $2.4 trillion to over $9 trillion in 2020. The paper highlights the importance of investing in public health systems, particularly in less developed countries, to mitigate future pandemics. The results suggest that global cooperation and coordinated policy responses are crucial to managing the economic and health challenges posed by infectious diseases.This paper explores the potential economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic using a global hybrid DSGE/CGE model. The authors, Warwick McKibbin and Roshen Fernando, develop seven scenarios to assess how the disease might evolve and its economic consequences. The scenarios range from a contained outbreak to a global pandemic, with varying levels of mortality and morbidity rates. The study finds that even a contained outbreak could significantly impact the global economy in the short run, with potential GDP losses ranging from $2.4 trillion to over $9 trillion in 2020. The paper highlights the importance of investing in public health systems, particularly in less developed countries, to mitigate future pandemics. The results suggest that global cooperation and coordinated policy responses are crucial to managing the economic and health challenges posed by infectious diseases.