Spring, 1990 | Andrei Shleifer; Lawrence H. Summers
The Noise Trader Approach to Finance by Andrei Shleifer and Lawrence H. Summers challenges the efficient markets hypothesis, arguing that financial markets are not always efficient due to the presence of noise traders—investors whose decisions are influenced by sentiment rather than fundamental information. The paper presents two key assumptions: (1) some investors are not fully rational and their demand for risky assets is influenced by non-fundamental beliefs, and (2) arbitrage, while theoretically riskless, is limited in practice due to risks such as fundamental risk and resale price risk. These assumptions imply that investor sentiment significantly affects security returns, as arbitrageurs cannot fully offset these sentiments.
The paper argues that the noise trader approach is superior to the efficient markets paradigm for several reasons. First, models with limited arbitrage are more realistic and tractable than models with perfect arbitrage. Second, the noise trader approach provides a more accurate description of financial markets, explaining anomalies and features like trading volume and investment strategies. Third, it yields new, testable implications about asset prices, some of which are consistent with empirical data.
The paper also discusses the limits of arbitrage, noting that while arbitrageurs can correct prices to fundamentals, they cannot always do so due to risks such as fundamental risk and resale price risk. This is illustrated through examples like Japanese equities in the 1980s, where arbitrageurs faced significant risks in trying to correct mispriced assets.
Investor sentiment is another key factor, with noise traders often reacting to pseudo-signals or popular models rather than fundamental information. These sentiments can lead to aggregate demand shifts, affecting prices even in the long run. The paper also highlights the role of positive feedback trading, where investors chase trends, leading to price bubbles and overreactions to news.
The paper concludes that the noise trader approach provides a more comprehensive understanding of financial markets, offering new insights and testable implications. It also raises normative questions about the welfare and policy implications of noise trading, suggesting that while noise trading can benefit arbitrageurs, it may impose costs on the broader market and society. The paper advocates for further research to evaluate the implications of noise trading for policy and market efficiency.The Noise Trader Approach to Finance by Andrei Shleifer and Lawrence H. Summers challenges the efficient markets hypothesis, arguing that financial markets are not always efficient due to the presence of noise traders—investors whose decisions are influenced by sentiment rather than fundamental information. The paper presents two key assumptions: (1) some investors are not fully rational and their demand for risky assets is influenced by non-fundamental beliefs, and (2) arbitrage, while theoretically riskless, is limited in practice due to risks such as fundamental risk and resale price risk. These assumptions imply that investor sentiment significantly affects security returns, as arbitrageurs cannot fully offset these sentiments.
The paper argues that the noise trader approach is superior to the efficient markets paradigm for several reasons. First, models with limited arbitrage are more realistic and tractable than models with perfect arbitrage. Second, the noise trader approach provides a more accurate description of financial markets, explaining anomalies and features like trading volume and investment strategies. Third, it yields new, testable implications about asset prices, some of which are consistent with empirical data.
The paper also discusses the limits of arbitrage, noting that while arbitrageurs can correct prices to fundamentals, they cannot always do so due to risks such as fundamental risk and resale price risk. This is illustrated through examples like Japanese equities in the 1980s, where arbitrageurs faced significant risks in trying to correct mispriced assets.
Investor sentiment is another key factor, with noise traders often reacting to pseudo-signals or popular models rather than fundamental information. These sentiments can lead to aggregate demand shifts, affecting prices even in the long run. The paper also highlights the role of positive feedback trading, where investors chase trends, leading to price bubbles and overreactions to news.
The paper concludes that the noise trader approach provides a more comprehensive understanding of financial markets, offering new insights and testable implications. It also raises normative questions about the welfare and policy implications of noise trading, suggesting that while noise trading can benefit arbitrageurs, it may impose costs on the broader market and society. The paper advocates for further research to evaluate the implications of noise trading for policy and market efficiency.