FEBRUARY 12, 2024 | Simon Evenett (Uni. of St. Gallen), Adam Jakubik (IMF), Fernando Martín (Global Trade Alert), and Michele Ruta (IMF)
Industrial policy is returning, but the nature of government interventions remains unclear. This paper introduces the New Industrial Policy Observatory (NIPO), a monitoring tool developed in collaboration with the Global Trade Alert (GTA). Using data from 2023, the paper documents emerging patterns of policy intervention and provides an early assessment of the determinants of industrial policy (IP). Industrial policies are defined as targeted government actions aimed at developing or supporting specific industries or economic activities to achieve national economic or non-economic objectives. The NIPO covers 75 jurisdictions (94% of global GDP) from all regions, with 45.3% being advanced economies (AEs) and 54.7% emerging and developing economies (EMDEs). The data includes information on the level of intervention, government motives, product groups in strategic sectors, and technology-related actions. The main motives for IP include national security, geopolitical concerns, supply chain resilience, climate and environment, and domestic competitiveness. Strategic products include low-carbon technology, military/civilian dual use, critical minerals, advanced technology products, semiconductors, medical, and information technology. Policies covered include import and export barriers, domestic subsidies, localization policies, and procurement policies. The paper finds that IP activity is concentrated among AEs and key economies, with 70.9% of trade-distorting NIPs coming from AEs and 29.1% from EMDEs. Promoting competitiveness is the dominant motive, but non-economic motives are increasing. AEs and EMDEs use different policy instruments, with dual-use products and advanced technologies accounting for the majority of IP interventions. Import restrictive IP covers over 1/5 of world imports. Regional differences include localization in North America, import barriers in Asia and Latin America. The paper also finds that domestic subsidies have significant trade spillovers, with exports of subsidized products increasing more than other products. The paper calls for enhanced multilateral cooperation to prevent retaliatory actions based on trade spillovers of subsidies. Determinants of IP include political economy, structural, cyclical, and tit-for-tat factors.Industrial policy is returning, but the nature of government interventions remains unclear. This paper introduces the New Industrial Policy Observatory (NIPO), a monitoring tool developed in collaboration with the Global Trade Alert (GTA). Using data from 2023, the paper documents emerging patterns of policy intervention and provides an early assessment of the determinants of industrial policy (IP). Industrial policies are defined as targeted government actions aimed at developing or supporting specific industries or economic activities to achieve national economic or non-economic objectives. The NIPO covers 75 jurisdictions (94% of global GDP) from all regions, with 45.3% being advanced economies (AEs) and 54.7% emerging and developing economies (EMDEs). The data includes information on the level of intervention, government motives, product groups in strategic sectors, and technology-related actions. The main motives for IP include national security, geopolitical concerns, supply chain resilience, climate and environment, and domestic competitiveness. Strategic products include low-carbon technology, military/civilian dual use, critical minerals, advanced technology products, semiconductors, medical, and information technology. Policies covered include import and export barriers, domestic subsidies, localization policies, and procurement policies. The paper finds that IP activity is concentrated among AEs and key economies, with 70.9% of trade-distorting NIPs coming from AEs and 29.1% from EMDEs. Promoting competitiveness is the dominant motive, but non-economic motives are increasing. AEs and EMDEs use different policy instruments, with dual-use products and advanced technologies accounting for the majority of IP interventions. Import restrictive IP covers over 1/5 of world imports. Regional differences include localization in North America, import barriers in Asia and Latin America. The paper also finds that domestic subsidies have significant trade spillovers, with exports of subsidized products increasing more than other products. The paper calls for enhanced multilateral cooperation to prevent retaliatory actions based on trade spillovers of subsidies. Determinants of IP include political economy, structural, cyclical, and tit-for-tat factors.