May 22, 2024 | Annemarie Baltay, Rachel E. Abercrombie, Shanna Chu, Taka'aki Taira
The paper introduces a community stress drop validation study using the 2019 Ridgecrest, California earthquake sequence. The study aims to understand the sources of variability and uncertainty in earthquake stress drop estimates through quantitative comparison of submissions from researchers using various methods. Stress drop, the change in average shear stress on a fault during earthquake rupture, is a key parameter in ground motion, rupture simulation, and source physics problems. Spectral stress drop is commonly estimated by fitting the shape of the radiated energy spectrum, but estimates from different studies can vary significantly. The study uses a publicly available dataset of nearly 13,000 earthquakes of magnitude 1 to 7 recorded within 1 degree of the epicenters. The research priorities include understanding how different methods and assumptions lead to variations in stress drop estimates, how variations in estimated spectral stress drops reflect physical variations in earthquake sources, and developing best practices for reliable stress drop estimation. The study is organized into two main activities: independent analysis of stress drop by researchers and meta-analysis of submitted results. Initial results show considerable scatter in stress drop estimates, with some stronger correlation between results using similar methods. The study also highlights systematic magnitude- and depth-dependent offsets between different authors' submissions. The authors emphasize the need for more detailed analysis to improve understanding of the sources of variability and the importance of community collaboration in advancing the field.The paper introduces a community stress drop validation study using the 2019 Ridgecrest, California earthquake sequence. The study aims to understand the sources of variability and uncertainty in earthquake stress drop estimates through quantitative comparison of submissions from researchers using various methods. Stress drop, the change in average shear stress on a fault during earthquake rupture, is a key parameter in ground motion, rupture simulation, and source physics problems. Spectral stress drop is commonly estimated by fitting the shape of the radiated energy spectrum, but estimates from different studies can vary significantly. The study uses a publicly available dataset of nearly 13,000 earthquakes of magnitude 1 to 7 recorded within 1 degree of the epicenters. The research priorities include understanding how different methods and assumptions lead to variations in stress drop estimates, how variations in estimated spectral stress drops reflect physical variations in earthquake sources, and developing best practices for reliable stress drop estimation. The study is organized into two main activities: independent analysis of stress drop by researchers and meta-analysis of submitted results. Initial results show considerable scatter in stress drop estimates, with some stronger correlation between results using similar methods. The study also highlights systematic magnitude- and depth-dependent offsets between different authors' submissions. The authors emphasize the need for more detailed analysis to improve understanding of the sources of variability and the importance of community collaboration in advancing the field.