The Unprecedented Stock Market Reaction to COVID-19

The Unprecedented Stock Market Reaction to COVID-19

30 March 2020 | Scott R. Baker, Nicholas Bloom, Steven J. Davis, Kyle Kost, Marco Sammon, Tasaneeya Viratyosin
The COVID-19 pandemic has had an unprecedented impact on the U.S. stock market, far exceeding previous pandemics such as the Spanish Flu, 1957–1958 influenza, and 1968 influenza. Using text-based methods, the authors analyze daily stock market moves and volatility, finding that the pandemic caused a significant increase in market volatility, with levels comparable to the 1987 stock market crash and the 2008 financial crisis. The study shows that news about the pandemic, both positive and negative, was the dominant driver of large daily stock market moves during February 2020 through April 2020. The frequency of large market moves during this period was exceptional, with 23 or 24 of the 27 jumps attributed to pandemic-related news and policy responses. The study also compares the stock market reactions to previous pandemics, finding that no previous infectious disease outbreak had such a significant impact on the stock market. The Spanish Flu, for example, did not trigger any large daily stock market moves, despite its high mortality rate. The authors conclude that the unprecedented stock market reaction to the COVID-19 pandemic is primarily due to the strict government restrictions on commercial activity and voluntary social distancing, which had powerful effects in a service-oriented economy. These policies, which were more stringent, broader in scope, and longer in duration than those of previous pandemics, led to a significant reduction in economic activity and a sharp drop in stock market activity. The study also highlights the role of voluntary social distancing and government-mandated restrictions in reducing economic activity, with the latter having a more significant impact in a service-oriented economy. The authors emphasize that the stock market reaction to the pandemic was not due to the virus's lethality or the disruption of international supply chains, but rather the combination of government restrictions and voluntary social distancing. The study concludes that the unprecedented stock market reaction to the pandemic is a result of the unique combination of factors, including the severity of the virus, the effectiveness of government restrictions, and the impact of voluntary social distancing on economic activity.The COVID-19 pandemic has had an unprecedented impact on the U.S. stock market, far exceeding previous pandemics such as the Spanish Flu, 1957–1958 influenza, and 1968 influenza. Using text-based methods, the authors analyze daily stock market moves and volatility, finding that the pandemic caused a significant increase in market volatility, with levels comparable to the 1987 stock market crash and the 2008 financial crisis. The study shows that news about the pandemic, both positive and negative, was the dominant driver of large daily stock market moves during February 2020 through April 2020. The frequency of large market moves during this period was exceptional, with 23 or 24 of the 27 jumps attributed to pandemic-related news and policy responses. The study also compares the stock market reactions to previous pandemics, finding that no previous infectious disease outbreak had such a significant impact on the stock market. The Spanish Flu, for example, did not trigger any large daily stock market moves, despite its high mortality rate. The authors conclude that the unprecedented stock market reaction to the COVID-19 pandemic is primarily due to the strict government restrictions on commercial activity and voluntary social distancing, which had powerful effects in a service-oriented economy. These policies, which were more stringent, broader in scope, and longer in duration than those of previous pandemics, led to a significant reduction in economic activity and a sharp drop in stock market activity. The study also highlights the role of voluntary social distancing and government-mandated restrictions in reducing economic activity, with the latter having a more significant impact in a service-oriented economy. The authors emphasize that the stock market reaction to the pandemic was not due to the virus's lethality or the disruption of international supply chains, but rather the combination of government restrictions and voluntary social distancing. The study concludes that the unprecedented stock market reaction to the pandemic is a result of the unique combination of factors, including the severity of the virus, the effectiveness of government restrictions, and the impact of voluntary social distancing on economic activity.
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