The big push, natural resource booms and growth

The big push, natural resource booms and growth

1999 | Jeffrey D. Sachs, Andrew M. Warner
This paper examines whether natural resource booms can act as catalysts for development in poorer countries, as suggested by the "big push" theory. Using data from seven Latin American countries, the authors find that natural resource booms are sometimes accompanied by declining per-capita GDP. They present a model incorporating natural resources, increasing returns, and expectations to explain this phenomenon. The paper challenges the idea that natural resource booms are beneficial for growth, as evidenced by historical cases in Latin America, where resource booms often led to slower growth rather than faster. The authors argue that natural resource booms can stimulate industrialization, but can also hinder it, depending on timing and sectoral distribution of returns. Cross-country evidence suggests an inverse association between natural resource abundance and economic growth, even after controlling for other factors. The paper also presents a model of natural resource booms and industrialization, showing that the impact of a boom depends on whether the increasing returns sector is traded or non-traded. The model highlights that resource booms can either facilitate or hinder growth, depending on the sector in which the increasing returns occur. The paper concludes that natural resource booms may not always lead to development, and that the relationship between resource abundance and growth is complex.This paper examines whether natural resource booms can act as catalysts for development in poorer countries, as suggested by the "big push" theory. Using data from seven Latin American countries, the authors find that natural resource booms are sometimes accompanied by declining per-capita GDP. They present a model incorporating natural resources, increasing returns, and expectations to explain this phenomenon. The paper challenges the idea that natural resource booms are beneficial for growth, as evidenced by historical cases in Latin America, where resource booms often led to slower growth rather than faster. The authors argue that natural resource booms can stimulate industrialization, but can also hinder it, depending on timing and sectoral distribution of returns. Cross-country evidence suggests an inverse association between natural resource abundance and economic growth, even after controlling for other factors. The paper also presents a model of natural resource booms and industrialization, showing that the impact of a boom depends on whether the increasing returns sector is traded or non-traded. The model highlights that resource booms can either facilitate or hinder growth, depending on the sector in which the increasing returns occur. The paper concludes that natural resource booms may not always lead to development, and that the relationship between resource abundance and growth is complex.
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