The economic commitment of climate change

The economic commitment of climate change

17 April 2024 | Maximilian Kotz12, Anders Levermann12 & Leonie Wenz13
The article by Maximilian Kotz, Anders Levermann, and Leonie Wenz examines the economic impacts of climate change, focusing on sub-national damages from temperature and precipitation changes over the past 40 years. Using empirical data from over 1,600 regions worldwide, they project that the global economy is committed to a 19% income reduction by 2049, independent of future emission choices, with a likely range of 11-29%. These damages already exceed the costs required to limit global warming to 2°C by six times. The impacts are primarily driven by changes in average temperature, but including other climatic components increases estimates by about 50% and highlights regional heterogeneity. The largest losses are in lower latitudes, regions with lower historical emissions, and lower present-day income. The authors emphasize the importance of these projections for informing public and policy debates on adaptation, mitigation, and climate justice. They also discuss the challenges of projecting future damages, particularly the human biases related to uncertainty and long-term perspectives, and provide a conservative approach to estimating the persistence of climate impacts on economic growth. The study concludes that the committed damages are already significant and that mitigation efforts are crucial to reduce future economic risks.The article by Maximilian Kotz, Anders Levermann, and Leonie Wenz examines the economic impacts of climate change, focusing on sub-national damages from temperature and precipitation changes over the past 40 years. Using empirical data from over 1,600 regions worldwide, they project that the global economy is committed to a 19% income reduction by 2049, independent of future emission choices, with a likely range of 11-29%. These damages already exceed the costs required to limit global warming to 2°C by six times. The impacts are primarily driven by changes in average temperature, but including other climatic components increases estimates by about 50% and highlights regional heterogeneity. The largest losses are in lower latitudes, regions with lower historical emissions, and lower present-day income. The authors emphasize the importance of these projections for informing public and policy debates on adaptation, mitigation, and climate justice. They also discuss the challenges of projecting future damages, particularly the human biases related to uncertainty and long-term perspectives, and provide a conservative approach to estimating the persistence of climate impacts on economic growth. The study concludes that the committed damages are already significant and that mitigation efforts are crucial to reduce future economic risks.
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Understanding The economic commitment of climate change