18 April 2024 | Maximilian Kotz, Anders Levermann & Leonie Wenz
A study by Kotz, Levermann, and Wenz finds that the global economy is committed to a 19% income reduction within the next 26 years due to climate change, regardless of future emission choices. This estimate, based on empirical data from over 1,600 regions, accounts for temperature and precipitation variability, including extreme events. The damages already exceed mitigation costs needed to limit warming to 2°C by sixfold over the near-term timeframe. Committed damages are primarily driven by average temperature changes, but including other climatic factors increases estimates by about 50%, leading to stronger regional differences. Regions with lower historical emissions and income are most affected. The study highlights the importance of considering climate impacts on economic growth, emphasizing the need for adaptation and mitigation strategies. It also underscores the injustice of climate damages, with countries with lower historical emissions and income suffering more. The research uses advanced climate econometric methods to project economic damages, accounting for the persistence of climate impacts. The findings suggest that climate damages are already significantly larger than mitigation costs, and that future damages will diverge based on emission choices. The study provides a robust lower bound on the persistence of climate impacts, offering a more accurate assessment of economic damages from climate change. The results have important implications for climate policy, highlighting the need for immediate action to address the economic consequences of climate change.A study by Kotz, Levermann, and Wenz finds that the global economy is committed to a 19% income reduction within the next 26 years due to climate change, regardless of future emission choices. This estimate, based on empirical data from over 1,600 regions, accounts for temperature and precipitation variability, including extreme events. The damages already exceed mitigation costs needed to limit warming to 2°C by sixfold over the near-term timeframe. Committed damages are primarily driven by average temperature changes, but including other climatic factors increases estimates by about 50%, leading to stronger regional differences. Regions with lower historical emissions and income are most affected. The study highlights the importance of considering climate impacts on economic growth, emphasizing the need for adaptation and mitigation strategies. It also underscores the injustice of climate damages, with countries with lower historical emissions and income suffering more. The research uses advanced climate econometric methods to project economic damages, accounting for the persistence of climate impacts. The findings suggest that climate damages are already significantly larger than mitigation costs, and that future damages will diverge based on emission choices. The study provides a robust lower bound on the persistence of climate impacts, offering a more accurate assessment of economic damages from climate change. The results have important implications for climate policy, highlighting the need for immediate action to address the economic consequences of climate change.