The Economics of BitCoin Price Formation

The Economics of BitCoin Price Formation

| Pavel Ciaian, Miroslava Rajcaniova, d'Artis Kancs
This paper analyzes the relationship between Bitcoin price and supply-demand fundamentals, global macro-financial indicators, and Bitcoin's attractiveness for investors. Using daily data from 2009-2014, the study finds that Bitcoin market fundamentals and investor attractiveness significantly impact Bitcoin price. It does not support previous findings that macro-financial developments drive Bitcoin price. Bitcoin is a peer-to-peer digital currency created in 2009, managed by an open-source algorithm. Unlike traditional fiat currencies, Bitcoin's supply is controlled by a software algorithm, leading to a fixed maximum supply of 21 million units. Bitcoin's price is influenced by supply-demand interactions, investor behavior, and global macroeconomic and financial developments. The study uses a Vector Auto-Regressive (VAR) model to estimate the causal effects between Bitcoin price and its determinants. The results show that supply-demand fundamentals have a strong impact on Bitcoin price, with demand-side factors like the size of the Bitcoin economy and velocity of circulation having the strongest effect. Investor attractiveness, measured by variables such as Wikipedia views, new members, and new posts, also significantly affects Bitcoin price. However, macro-financial indicators like the Dow Jones index, exchange rate, and oil price do not significantly affect Bitcoin price in the long run. The study concludes that Bitcoin price formation is primarily driven by supply-demand fundamentals and investor behavior, rather than macro-financial indicators. The findings suggest that Bitcoin's price is more influenced by market fundamentals and investor sentiment than by traditional macroeconomic factors.This paper analyzes the relationship between Bitcoin price and supply-demand fundamentals, global macro-financial indicators, and Bitcoin's attractiveness for investors. Using daily data from 2009-2014, the study finds that Bitcoin market fundamentals and investor attractiveness significantly impact Bitcoin price. It does not support previous findings that macro-financial developments drive Bitcoin price. Bitcoin is a peer-to-peer digital currency created in 2009, managed by an open-source algorithm. Unlike traditional fiat currencies, Bitcoin's supply is controlled by a software algorithm, leading to a fixed maximum supply of 21 million units. Bitcoin's price is influenced by supply-demand interactions, investor behavior, and global macroeconomic and financial developments. The study uses a Vector Auto-Regressive (VAR) model to estimate the causal effects between Bitcoin price and its determinants. The results show that supply-demand fundamentals have a strong impact on Bitcoin price, with demand-side factors like the size of the Bitcoin economy and velocity of circulation having the strongest effect. Investor attractiveness, measured by variables such as Wikipedia views, new members, and new posts, also significantly affects Bitcoin price. However, macro-financial indicators like the Dow Jones index, exchange rate, and oil price do not significantly affect Bitcoin price in the long run. The study concludes that Bitcoin price formation is primarily driven by supply-demand fundamentals and investor behavior, rather than macro-financial indicators. The findings suggest that Bitcoin's price is more influenced by market fundamentals and investor sentiment than by traditional macroeconomic factors.
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Understanding The economics of BitCoin price formation