The Economics of BitCoin Price Formation

The Economics of BitCoin Price Formation

| Pavel Ciaian, Miroslava Rajcaniova, d'Artis Kancs
This paper examines the factors influencing Bitcoin price formation, focusing on supply-demand fundamentals, global macro-financial indicators, and investor attractiveness. Using daily data from 2009 to 2014, the authors apply time-series analysis to identify the causal relationships between these factors and Bitcoin price. The study finds that Bitcoin market fundamentals and investor attractiveness significantly impact Bitcoin prices, while macro-financial indicators do not have a significant long-term effect. Specifically, the demand side, including the size of the Bitcoin economy and the velocity of Bitcoin circulation, has a stronger impact on Bitcoin prices compared to supply-side factors. The paper also highlights the role of speculative behavior, as indicated by variables like Wikipedia views, which capture investor interest and trust in Bitcoin. Overall, the findings suggest that Bitcoin price formation is largely explained by standard economic models, with supply-demand dynamics and investor sentiment playing crucial roles.This paper examines the factors influencing Bitcoin price formation, focusing on supply-demand fundamentals, global macro-financial indicators, and investor attractiveness. Using daily data from 2009 to 2014, the authors apply time-series analysis to identify the causal relationships between these factors and Bitcoin price. The study finds that Bitcoin market fundamentals and investor attractiveness significantly impact Bitcoin prices, while macro-financial indicators do not have a significant long-term effect. Specifically, the demand side, including the size of the Bitcoin economy and the velocity of Bitcoin circulation, has a stronger impact on Bitcoin prices compared to supply-side factors. The paper also highlights the role of speculative behavior, as indicated by variables like Wikipedia views, which capture investor interest and trust in Bitcoin. Overall, the findings suggest that Bitcoin price formation is largely explained by standard economic models, with supply-demand dynamics and investor sentiment playing crucial roles.
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[slides and audio] The economics of BitCoin price formation