July 28, 2020 | Alexander W. Bartik, Marianne Bertrand, Zoe Cullen, Edward L. Glaeser, Michael Luca, and Christopher Stanton
This article examines the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on small businesses in the United States, focusing on three key questions: how small businesses adjusted to economic disruptions, how long they expected the crisis to last, and how alternative policy proposals might affect business and employment resilience. A survey of over 5,800 small businesses, conducted between March 28 and April 4, 2020, revealed that many businesses had already closed or reduced operations due to the pandemic. Nearly 43% of businesses were temporarily closed, with closures largely attributed to reduced demand and employee health concerns. The median business with over $10,000 in monthly expenses had only about two weeks of cash on hand, highlighting the financial fragility of many small businesses. Despite this, the majority of businesses planned to seek funding through the CARES Act, though many anticipated challenges with access. The survey also found that businesses' expectations about the crisis duration varied widely, with the median business owner expecting the dislocation to last into midsummer. The length of the crisis significantly influenced business outcomes, with longer durations leading to higher job losses. The study also explored the impact of different policy proposals, finding that loan programs with forgiveness provisions were more likely to be taken up than traditional loans. The results suggest that liquidity provision was crucial for business survival, and that the form of cash injection (grant vs. loan) may be less important than ensuring rapid availability with minimal administrative complexity. The study highlights the need for policies that address the financial fragility of small businesses and the importance of clear, accessible aid programs to support recovery. The findings underscore the significant economic impact of the pandemic on small businesses and the need for targeted policy interventions to mitigate its effects.This article examines the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on small businesses in the United States, focusing on three key questions: how small businesses adjusted to economic disruptions, how long they expected the crisis to last, and how alternative policy proposals might affect business and employment resilience. A survey of over 5,800 small businesses, conducted between March 28 and April 4, 2020, revealed that many businesses had already closed or reduced operations due to the pandemic. Nearly 43% of businesses were temporarily closed, with closures largely attributed to reduced demand and employee health concerns. The median business with over $10,000 in monthly expenses had only about two weeks of cash on hand, highlighting the financial fragility of many small businesses. Despite this, the majority of businesses planned to seek funding through the CARES Act, though many anticipated challenges with access. The survey also found that businesses' expectations about the crisis duration varied widely, with the median business owner expecting the dislocation to last into midsummer. The length of the crisis significantly influenced business outcomes, with longer durations leading to higher job losses. The study also explored the impact of different policy proposals, finding that loan programs with forgiveness provisions were more likely to be taken up than traditional loans. The results suggest that liquidity provision was crucial for business survival, and that the form of cash injection (grant vs. loan) may be less important than ensuring rapid availability with minimal administrative complexity. The study highlights the need for policies that address the financial fragility of small businesses and the importance of clear, accessible aid programs to support recovery. The findings underscore the significant economic impact of the pandemic on small businesses and the need for targeted policy interventions to mitigate its effects.