The impact of extreme heat on lake warming in China

The impact of extreme heat on lake warming in China

02 January 2024 | Weijia Wang, Kun Shi, Xiwen Wang, Yunlin Zhang, Boqiang Qin, Yibo Zhang & R. Iestyn Woolway
This study investigates the impact of extreme heat events on lake warming in China from 1985 to 2022. Using a hybrid physically-based/statistical model, the researchers analyzed the contribution of heat extremes to variations in surface water temperature (LSWT) of 2260 lakes. The results show that heat extremes are increasing at a rate of about 2.08 days per decade and an intensity of about 0.03 °C/day-decade in China. After removing heat extremes, the warming rate of lake surface water temperature decreased from 0.16 °C/decade to 0.13 °C/decade. Heat extremes contribute 36.5% of the warming trends within the studied lakes, indicating their significant influence on long-term lake surface temperature changes. The study highlights the increasing frequency and intensity of heat extremes globally, which pose severe threats to natural ecosystems, socioeconomic stability, and human well-being. Heat extremes can lead to direct human and biological mortality, exacerbate other disasters such as wildfires, mental health issues, and agricultural losses. In China, over 400 cities experienced extreme heat in 2022, demonstrating the severe impact of heat extremes on the environment and society. Lakes, as crucial components of the Earth's ecosystem, are significantly affected by heat extremes. The substantial increase in lake surface water temperature induced by these events can rapidly disrupt the physical, chemical, and biological properties of a lake, potentially leading to irreversible consequences. The study found that the frequency of extreme heat events in China has increased, with the southern regions experiencing the highest frequency. The intensity of extreme heat also showed an overall increasing trend. The study also found that heat extremes exert a strong impact on lake temperatures. Long-term daily simulations of LSWT revealed significant differences in the occurrence of extremes before and after removing heat extremes from SAT. The average number of days with extreme heat in LSWT decreased substantially after removing heat extremes. The analysis indicated an overall increasing trend in LSWT, with lakes in the Eastern Plain Lake Region experiencing the greatest warming. The study emphasizes the importance of accounting for heat extremes in climate impact studies, as they significantly contribute to the warming of lake surface waters. The findings highlight the need for improved monitoring and prediction systems for heat extremes to manage their impacts on lake ecosystems. The study also underscores the importance of future research to better understand the effects of heat extremes on lake ecosystems and to develop effective strategies for mitigating their impacts.This study investigates the impact of extreme heat events on lake warming in China from 1985 to 2022. Using a hybrid physically-based/statistical model, the researchers analyzed the contribution of heat extremes to variations in surface water temperature (LSWT) of 2260 lakes. The results show that heat extremes are increasing at a rate of about 2.08 days per decade and an intensity of about 0.03 °C/day-decade in China. After removing heat extremes, the warming rate of lake surface water temperature decreased from 0.16 °C/decade to 0.13 °C/decade. Heat extremes contribute 36.5% of the warming trends within the studied lakes, indicating their significant influence on long-term lake surface temperature changes. The study highlights the increasing frequency and intensity of heat extremes globally, which pose severe threats to natural ecosystems, socioeconomic stability, and human well-being. Heat extremes can lead to direct human and biological mortality, exacerbate other disasters such as wildfires, mental health issues, and agricultural losses. In China, over 400 cities experienced extreme heat in 2022, demonstrating the severe impact of heat extremes on the environment and society. Lakes, as crucial components of the Earth's ecosystem, are significantly affected by heat extremes. The substantial increase in lake surface water temperature induced by these events can rapidly disrupt the physical, chemical, and biological properties of a lake, potentially leading to irreversible consequences. The study found that the frequency of extreme heat events in China has increased, with the southern regions experiencing the highest frequency. The intensity of extreme heat also showed an overall increasing trend. The study also found that heat extremes exert a strong impact on lake temperatures. Long-term daily simulations of LSWT revealed significant differences in the occurrence of extremes before and after removing heat extremes from SAT. The average number of days with extreme heat in LSWT decreased substantially after removing heat extremes. The analysis indicated an overall increasing trend in LSWT, with lakes in the Eastern Plain Lake Region experiencing the greatest warming. The study emphasizes the importance of accounting for heat extremes in climate impact studies, as they significantly contribute to the warming of lake surface waters. The findings highlight the need for improved monitoring and prediction systems for heat extremes to manage their impacts on lake ecosystems. The study also underscores the importance of future research to better understand the effects of heat extremes on lake ecosystems and to develop effective strategies for mitigating their impacts.
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