The impacts of decarbonization pathways on Sustainable Development Goals in the European Union

The impacts of decarbonization pathways on Sustainable Development Goals in the European Union

2024 | Jorge Moreno, Lorenza Campagnolo, Baptiste Boitier, Alexandros Nikas, Konstantinos Koasidis, Ajay Gambhir, Mikel Gonzalez-Eguino, Sigit Perdana, Dirk-Jan Van de Ven, Alessandro Chiodi, Elisa Delpiazzo, Haris Doukas, Maurizio Gargiulo, Andrea Herbst, Khaled Al-Dabbas, Şirin Alibaş, Felix Neuner, Pierre Le Mouël & Marc Vielle
This study evaluates the impacts of decarbonization pathways on the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in the European Union (EU) using an integrated assessment model (IAM) framework comprising nine climate policy models. The analysis shows that scenario-consistent assumptions of future socio-economic trends and current climate policies improve energy- and carbon-related aspects of sustainability and reduce inequalities. Ambitious net-zero emissions pathways further improve health and agricultural productivity. Countries currently lagging in achieving SDGs would benefit most from ambitious climate action, while negative socio-economic impacts on poverty, hunger, and economic growth require specific corrective policies. The study uses a diverse range of models to assess the sustainability implications of the EU's climate policies and pledges. The models include a partial equilibrium model (GCAM), two computable general equilibrium models (GEMINI-E3, ICES-XPS), one macroeconometric model (NEMESIS), one energy system model (EU-TIMES), and two sectoral models (FORECAST and ALADIN). The models are harmonized to ensure consistent scenario design and to reduce outcome gaps due to model structures. The study finds that implementing current policies in the EU would result in overall sustainability improvements across almost all SDG indicators. In 2050, EU citizens would be wealthier, experience lower poverty and inequality, attain higher education levels, and have higher life expectancy. Mitigation efforts would increase renewable electricity shares, reduce industrial energy consumption, and improve carbon footprints in residential, transport, and industrial sectors. Additional synergies would include reductions in mortality associated with air pollution and ocean acidification. The study also finds that more stringent climate policies in NZE scenarios would increase policy costs compared to current policies, reducing GDP by around 0.4–0.9% on average for the 2020-2050 period. This drives the decline of SDG 8-relevant economic indicators. However, the study suggests that the use of carbon tax revenues to support vulnerable populations or low-carbon technology research and development could reduce the social and economic impacts of climate change mitigation. The study highlights the need for a multi-model approach to assess the impacts of climate policies on SDGs, as well as the importance of considering the interactions between climate and sustainability objectives. The study also emphasizes the importance of using model ensembles to enhance the robustness of results and to provide region-specific, policy-relevant insights. The study concludes that the Paris Agreement goals are still achievable, but targeted policies supported by ex-ante analysis must be implemented to counteract potential trade-offs between mitigation policies and the SDG Agenda.This study evaluates the impacts of decarbonization pathways on the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in the European Union (EU) using an integrated assessment model (IAM) framework comprising nine climate policy models. The analysis shows that scenario-consistent assumptions of future socio-economic trends and current climate policies improve energy- and carbon-related aspects of sustainability and reduce inequalities. Ambitious net-zero emissions pathways further improve health and agricultural productivity. Countries currently lagging in achieving SDGs would benefit most from ambitious climate action, while negative socio-economic impacts on poverty, hunger, and economic growth require specific corrective policies. The study uses a diverse range of models to assess the sustainability implications of the EU's climate policies and pledges. The models include a partial equilibrium model (GCAM), two computable general equilibrium models (GEMINI-E3, ICES-XPS), one macroeconometric model (NEMESIS), one energy system model (EU-TIMES), and two sectoral models (FORECAST and ALADIN). The models are harmonized to ensure consistent scenario design and to reduce outcome gaps due to model structures. The study finds that implementing current policies in the EU would result in overall sustainability improvements across almost all SDG indicators. In 2050, EU citizens would be wealthier, experience lower poverty and inequality, attain higher education levels, and have higher life expectancy. Mitigation efforts would increase renewable electricity shares, reduce industrial energy consumption, and improve carbon footprints in residential, transport, and industrial sectors. Additional synergies would include reductions in mortality associated with air pollution and ocean acidification. The study also finds that more stringent climate policies in NZE scenarios would increase policy costs compared to current policies, reducing GDP by around 0.4–0.9% on average for the 2020-2050 period. This drives the decline of SDG 8-relevant economic indicators. However, the study suggests that the use of carbon tax revenues to support vulnerable populations or low-carbon technology research and development could reduce the social and economic impacts of climate change mitigation. The study highlights the need for a multi-model approach to assess the impacts of climate policies on SDGs, as well as the importance of considering the interactions between climate and sustainability objectives. The study also emphasizes the importance of using model ensembles to enhance the robustness of results and to provide region-specific, policy-relevant insights. The study concludes that the Paris Agreement goals are still achievable, but targeted policies supported by ex-ante analysis must be implemented to counteract potential trade-offs between mitigation policies and the SDG Agenda.
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