Mitigation on methadone: how negative emissions lock in our high-carbon addiction

Mitigation on methadone: how negative emissions lock in our high-carbon addiction

| Unknown Author
The Paris Agreement, adopted by the UNFCCC in 2015, aims to limit global temperature rise to well below 2°C and pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5°C. This requires balancing anthropogenic emissions with removals by sinks, leading to the concept of "negative emissions." Carbon budgets, which specify the amount of CO₂ emissions allowed over the century to achieve these temperature targets, are estimated with quantitative likelihoods. However, these budgets are complex and subject to uncertainties, making precise constraints difficult. Negative Emission Technologies (NETs) are crucial in many scenarios, with bioenergy combined with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) being the most prominent. Despite their promise, BECCS faces significant technical and economic challenges, including the scale of biomass required, land availability, and the potential for environmental and social impacts. The reliance on NETs, particularly BECCS, is seen as a political panacea, postponing immediate mitigation efforts and potentially leading to rapid temperature rises if these technologies fail to deliver on their scale. The distribution of risks associated with NETs is highly inequitable, affecting low-emitting communities disproportionately. The failure of NETs could result in significant temperature overshoots, highlighting the moral hazard and intergenerational inequity. Therefore, while research and development of NETs are important, the mitigation agenda should proceed with caution, recognizing the potential limitations and risks.The Paris Agreement, adopted by the UNFCCC in 2015, aims to limit global temperature rise to well below 2°C and pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5°C. This requires balancing anthropogenic emissions with removals by sinks, leading to the concept of "negative emissions." Carbon budgets, which specify the amount of CO₂ emissions allowed over the century to achieve these temperature targets, are estimated with quantitative likelihoods. However, these budgets are complex and subject to uncertainties, making precise constraints difficult. Negative Emission Technologies (NETs) are crucial in many scenarios, with bioenergy combined with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) being the most prominent. Despite their promise, BECCS faces significant technical and economic challenges, including the scale of biomass required, land availability, and the potential for environmental and social impacts. The reliance on NETs, particularly BECCS, is seen as a political panacea, postponing immediate mitigation efforts and potentially leading to rapid temperature rises if these technologies fail to deliver on their scale. The distribution of risks associated with NETs is highly inequitable, affecting low-emitting communities disproportionately. The failure of NETs could result in significant temperature overshoots, highlighting the moral hazard and intergenerational inequity. Therefore, while research and development of NETs are important, the mitigation agenda should proceed with caution, recognizing the potential limitations and risks.
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