2013-10-01 | Stefanie Kirschke, Philippe Bousquet, Philippe Ciais et al.
The article "Three decades of global methane sources and sinks" by Stefanie Kirschke et al. provides a comprehensive analysis of global methane (CH4) budgets from 1980 to 2010. The study combines atmospheric measurements, chemical transport models, ecosystem models, and inventories of anthropogenic emissions to construct decadal budgets for CH4 sources and sinks. Key findings include:
1. **Stabilization and Rebound in Atmospheric CH4 Levels**: The observed stabilization of atmospheric CH4 levels between 1999 and 2006 is attributed to decreasing or stable fossil fuel emissions combined with stable or increasing microbial emissions. The renewed increase in global CH4 levels after 2006 is likely due to higher emissions from wetlands and fossil fuel burning.
2. **Emission Scenarios**: Three contrasting emission scenarios are built to explain the decadal variability in atmospheric CH4 levels. These scenarios differ in fossil fuel and microbial emissions, and they suggest that the stabilization in the early 2000s was due to a reduction in fossil fuel emissions, while the increase after 2006 was driven by higher emissions from both wetlands and fossil fuels.
3. **Regional and Global Budgets**: The study reveals significant regional variations in CH4 emissions, with wetlands dominating emissions in tropical South America and Africa, and anthropogenic emissions being more prominent in Europe, North America, China, and fossil fuel-producing regions.
4. **Uncertainties and Future Directions**: The article identifies several shortcomings in the assessment of regional to global CH4 budgets, including uncertainties in wetland emissions, regional partitioning of emissions, and decadal trends in natural and anthropogenic emissions. It recommends improvements in models, data collection, and atmospheric observations to reduce these uncertainties.
5. **Opportunities and Challenges**: The study highlights the potential for short-term climate change mitigation policies that target CH4, given its relatively short atmospheric lifetime. However, it also warns about the risks associated with the intensive exploitation of shale gas and the thawing of permafrost or hydrates, which could lead to significant additional CH4 emissions.
Overall, the article provides a detailed and nuanced understanding of the global CH4 cycle, emphasizing the need for continued research and monitoring to better manage this greenhouse gas.The article "Three decades of global methane sources and sinks" by Stefanie Kirschke et al. provides a comprehensive analysis of global methane (CH4) budgets from 1980 to 2010. The study combines atmospheric measurements, chemical transport models, ecosystem models, and inventories of anthropogenic emissions to construct decadal budgets for CH4 sources and sinks. Key findings include:
1. **Stabilization and Rebound in Atmospheric CH4 Levels**: The observed stabilization of atmospheric CH4 levels between 1999 and 2006 is attributed to decreasing or stable fossil fuel emissions combined with stable or increasing microbial emissions. The renewed increase in global CH4 levels after 2006 is likely due to higher emissions from wetlands and fossil fuel burning.
2. **Emission Scenarios**: Three contrasting emission scenarios are built to explain the decadal variability in atmospheric CH4 levels. These scenarios differ in fossil fuel and microbial emissions, and they suggest that the stabilization in the early 2000s was due to a reduction in fossil fuel emissions, while the increase after 2006 was driven by higher emissions from both wetlands and fossil fuels.
3. **Regional and Global Budgets**: The study reveals significant regional variations in CH4 emissions, with wetlands dominating emissions in tropical South America and Africa, and anthropogenic emissions being more prominent in Europe, North America, China, and fossil fuel-producing regions.
4. **Uncertainties and Future Directions**: The article identifies several shortcomings in the assessment of regional to global CH4 budgets, including uncertainties in wetland emissions, regional partitioning of emissions, and decadal trends in natural and anthropogenic emissions. It recommends improvements in models, data collection, and atmospheric observations to reduce these uncertainties.
5. **Opportunities and Challenges**: The study highlights the potential for short-term climate change mitigation policies that target CH4, given its relatively short atmospheric lifetime. However, it also warns about the risks associated with the intensive exploitation of shale gas and the thawing of permafrost or hydrates, which could lead to significant additional CH4 emissions.
Overall, the article provides a detailed and nuanced understanding of the global CH4 cycle, emphasizing the need for continued research and monitoring to better manage this greenhouse gas.