TIMEMIXER: DECOMPOSABLE MULTISCALE MIXING FOR TIME SERIES FORECASTING

TIMEMIXER: DECOMPOSABLE MULTISCALE MIXING FOR TIME SERIES FORECASTING

23 May 2024 | Shiyu Wang1*, Haixu Wu2*, Xiaoming Shi1, Tengge Hu2, Huakun Luo2, Lintao Ma1*, James Y. Zhang1, Jun Zhou1*
Time series forecasting is a widely used technique in various applications such as traffic planning and weather forecasting. However, real-world time series often exhibit intricate temporal variations, making forecasting challenging. This paper introduces *TimeMixer*, a novel architecture that addresses this issue by leveraging a multiscale-mixing approach. Unlike traditional methods that focus on plain decomposition or multiperiodicity analysis, TimeMixer decomposes time series into distinct patterns at different sampling scales, capturing both fine-grained seasonal and coarse-grained trend components. The architecture consists of *Past-Decomposable-Mixing* (PDM) and *Future-Multipredictor-Mixing* (FMM) blocks. PDM mixes the decomposed seasonal and trend components in a fine-to-coarse and coarse-to-fine direction, respectively, while FMM ensemble multiple predictors to utilize complementary forecasting capabilities from multiscale observations. This approach enables TimeMixer to achieve state-of-the-art performance in both long-term and short-term forecasting tasks with superior efficiency. The paper also includes extensive experiments on various benchmarks, demonstrating the effectiveness and efficiency of TimeMixer.Time series forecasting is a widely used technique in various applications such as traffic planning and weather forecasting. However, real-world time series often exhibit intricate temporal variations, making forecasting challenging. This paper introduces *TimeMixer*, a novel architecture that addresses this issue by leveraging a multiscale-mixing approach. Unlike traditional methods that focus on plain decomposition or multiperiodicity analysis, TimeMixer decomposes time series into distinct patterns at different sampling scales, capturing both fine-grained seasonal and coarse-grained trend components. The architecture consists of *Past-Decomposable-Mixing* (PDM) and *Future-Multipredictor-Mixing* (FMM) blocks. PDM mixes the decomposed seasonal and trend components in a fine-to-coarse and coarse-to-fine direction, respectively, while FMM ensemble multiple predictors to utilize complementary forecasting capabilities from multiscale observations. This approach enables TimeMixer to achieve state-of-the-art performance in both long-term and short-term forecasting tasks with superior efficiency. The paper also includes extensive experiments on various benchmarks, demonstrating the effectiveness and efficiency of TimeMixer.
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