Redefine statistical significance

Redefine statistical significance

VOL 2 | JANUARY 2018 | 6-10 | Daniel J. Benjamin, James O. Berger, Magnus Johannesson, Brian A. Nosek, E.-J. Wagenmakers, Richard Berk, Kenneth A. Bollen, Björn Brembs, Lawrence Brown, Colin Camerer, David Cesarini, Christopher D. Chambers, Merlise Clyde, Thomas D. Cook, Paul De Boeck, Zoltan Dienes, Anna Dreber, Kenny Easwaran, Charles Efferson, Ernst Fehr, Fiona Fidler, Andy P. Field, Malcolm Forster, Edward I. George, Richard Gonzalez, Steven Goodman, Edwin Green, Donald P. Green, Anthony Greenwald, Jarrod D. Hadfield, Larry V. Hedges, Leonhard Held, Teck Hua Ho, Herbert Hoijtink, Daniel J. Hruschka, Kosuke Imai, Guido Imbens, John P. A. Ioannidis, Minjeong Jeon, James Holland Jones, Michael Kirchler, David Laibson, John List, Roderick Little, Arthur Lupia, Edouard Machery, Scott E. Maxwell, Michael McCarthy, Don Moore, Stephen L. Morgan, Marcus Munafò, Shinichi Nakagawa, Brendan Nyhan, Timothy H. Parker, Luis Pericchi, Marco Perugini, Jeff Rouder, Judith Rousseau, Victoria Savalei, Felix D. Schönbrodt, Thomas Sellke, Betsy Sinclair, Dustin Tingley, Trisha Van Zandt, Simine Vazire, Duncan J. Watts, Christopher Winship, Robert L. Wolpert, Yu Xie, Cristobal Young, Jonathan Zinman and Valen E. Johnson
The authors propose changing the default threshold for statistical significance from 0.05 to 0.005 for claims of new discoveries. They argue that the current threshold, associated with a P-value of 0.05, results in a high rate of false positives, even in the absence of other experimental, procedural, and reporting issues. The proposed change would improve the reproducibility of scientific research by reducing the false positive rate. The authors provide a detailed explanation of the relationship between P-values and Bayes factors, showing that a P-value of 0.005 corresponds to substantial to strong evidence in favor of the alternative hypothesis. They also address potential objections, such as the increased false negative rate and the need for alternative statistical methods, emphasizing that the change is a complementary step to other reforms. The authors conclude that the change is actionable and will immediately improve reproducibility in many fields.The authors propose changing the default threshold for statistical significance from 0.05 to 0.005 for claims of new discoveries. They argue that the current threshold, associated with a P-value of 0.05, results in a high rate of false positives, even in the absence of other experimental, procedural, and reporting issues. The proposed change would improve the reproducibility of scientific research by reducing the false positive rate. The authors provide a detailed explanation of the relationship between P-values and Bayes factors, showing that a P-value of 0.005 corresponds to substantial to strong evidence in favor of the alternative hypothesis. They also address potential objections, such as the increased false negative rate and the need for alternative statistical methods, emphasizing that the change is a complementary step to other reforms. The authors conclude that the change is actionable and will immediately improve reproducibility in many fields.
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[slides] Title%3A Redefine Statistical Significance | StudySpace