Tracking the ecological overshoot of the human economy

Tracking the ecological overshoot of the human economy

July 9, 2002 | Mathis Wackernagel*, Niels B. Schulz*, Diana Deumling*, Alejandro Callejas Linares§, Martin Jenkins†, Valerie Kapos†, Chad Monfreda†, Jonathan Loh†, Norman Myers††, Richard Norgaard††, and Jørgen Randers††
This study presents a framework for measuring the ecological overshoot of the human economy, which is the extent to which human demand on the biosphere exceeds its regenerative capacity. The research uses data to translate human demand for resources and waste absorption into biologically productive area, showing that since the 1980s, human demand has exceeded the biosphere's capacity. In 1961, human demand was 70% of the biosphere's capacity, but by 1999, it had grown to 120%, indicating a 20% overshoot. This means that it would take 1.2 Earths to regenerate what humanity used in 1999. The study accounts for six major human activities that require biologically productive space: growing crops, grazing animals, harvesting timber, fishing, accommodating infrastructure, and burning fossil fuels. Each activity's demand and the Earth's biological capacity are calculated and compared. The results show that fossil fuel use has a significant impact on ecological demand, even under conservative assumptions. The study also highlights the importance of biodiversity in maintaining ecosystem resilience and stability. It suggests that reserving 12% of biologically productive area for conservation could reduce the overshoot from 20% to nearly 40%. The global average per capita area demand in 1999 was 2.3 global hectares, significantly lower than in industrialized countries. The study emphasizes the relevance of these accounts to economic analysis, as they provide biophysical indicators of sustainability that can inform production choices and help assess the impact of remedial policies. The accounts can help determine how much each nation or region contributes to the overall impact of humanity and evaluate potential strategies for moving toward sustainability. The study concludes that these accounts are essential for understanding the ecological footprint of human activities and for developing policies that ensure sustainability.This study presents a framework for measuring the ecological overshoot of the human economy, which is the extent to which human demand on the biosphere exceeds its regenerative capacity. The research uses data to translate human demand for resources and waste absorption into biologically productive area, showing that since the 1980s, human demand has exceeded the biosphere's capacity. In 1961, human demand was 70% of the biosphere's capacity, but by 1999, it had grown to 120%, indicating a 20% overshoot. This means that it would take 1.2 Earths to regenerate what humanity used in 1999. The study accounts for six major human activities that require biologically productive space: growing crops, grazing animals, harvesting timber, fishing, accommodating infrastructure, and burning fossil fuels. Each activity's demand and the Earth's biological capacity are calculated and compared. The results show that fossil fuel use has a significant impact on ecological demand, even under conservative assumptions. The study also highlights the importance of biodiversity in maintaining ecosystem resilience and stability. It suggests that reserving 12% of biologically productive area for conservation could reduce the overshoot from 20% to nearly 40%. The global average per capita area demand in 1999 was 2.3 global hectares, significantly lower than in industrialized countries. The study emphasizes the relevance of these accounts to economic analysis, as they provide biophysical indicators of sustainability that can inform production choices and help assess the impact of remedial policies. The accounts can help determine how much each nation or region contributes to the overall impact of humanity and evaluate potential strategies for moving toward sustainability. The study concludes that these accounts are essential for understanding the ecological footprint of human activities and for developing policies that ensure sustainability.
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