19 February 2024 | Zefeng Chen, Weiguang Wang, Giovanni Forzieri, Alessandro Cescatti
The study investigates the dynamics of the indirect effects of elevated atmospheric CO₂ (eCO₂) on vegetation carbon uptake, using satellite observations and Earth system models (ESMs) from 1982 to 2014, and projects future changes up to 2100 under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. The results show that the initial positive effect of eCO₂-induced climate change on vegetation carbon uptake has declined, shifting to a negative trend in the early 21st century. This shift is particularly prominent in high latitudes and is accompanied by a decrease in the direct CO₂ physiological effect, leading to a sharp reduction in the current growth benefits from climate warming and CO₂ fertilization. The weakening of the indirect CO₂ effect is partly attributed to widespread land drying and is expected to be exacerbated under global warming. The study also explores the relationship between the indirect and direct effects of eCO₂, finding that the relative importance of these effects varies significantly under different scenarios. The findings highlight the complex interplay between climate change and vegetation carbon uptake, emphasizing the need for more integrated and realistic mitigation strategies to address climate change.The study investigates the dynamics of the indirect effects of elevated atmospheric CO₂ (eCO₂) on vegetation carbon uptake, using satellite observations and Earth system models (ESMs) from 1982 to 2014, and projects future changes up to 2100 under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. The results show that the initial positive effect of eCO₂-induced climate change on vegetation carbon uptake has declined, shifting to a negative trend in the early 21st century. This shift is particularly prominent in high latitudes and is accompanied by a decrease in the direct CO₂ physiological effect, leading to a sharp reduction in the current growth benefits from climate warming and CO₂ fertilization. The weakening of the indirect CO₂ effect is partly attributed to widespread land drying and is expected to be exacerbated under global warming. The study also explores the relationship between the indirect and direct effects of eCO₂, finding that the relative importance of these effects varies significantly under different scenarios. The findings highlight the complex interplay between climate change and vegetation carbon uptake, emphasizing the need for more integrated and realistic mitigation strategies to address climate change.