Transnational conservation to anticipate future plant shifts in Europe

Transnational conservation to anticipate future plant shifts in Europe

22 January 2024 | Yohann Chauvier-Mendes, Laura J. Pollock, Peter H. Verburg, Dirk N. Karger, Loïc Pellissier, Sébastien Lavergne, Niklaus E. Zimmermann, Wilfried Thuiller
The article assesses the current European reserve network's ability to protect the European Alps' flora by 2080, using semi-mechanistic simulations. The study highlights the need for significant adjustments to the current network, as it does not effectively capture biodiversity patterns. It predicts a strong shift in conservation needs along latitudes and elevations as plants migrate upslope and their distribution shrinks. While increasing species, trait, and evolutionary diversity, migration could also threaten 70% of the resident flora. The future European reserve network will need to ensure strong elevation and latitudinal connections to complementarily protect multifaceted biodiversity beyond national borders. The study uses species distribution models, trait and phylogenetic information, and systematic conservation planning to identify conservation priorities and areas of relative stability. It suggests that local and regional conservation strategies should focus on protecting multifaceted diversity and its irreplaceability, with a particular emphasis on the Mediterranean Alps. The current conservation network is insufficient and requires adaptations to operate optimally under novel environmental conditions. The success of future European planning will depend on effective conservation coordination between EU members and non-members. Challenges include data availability and the need for more comprehensive ecological data to achieve comprehensive conservation planning.The article assesses the current European reserve network's ability to protect the European Alps' flora by 2080, using semi-mechanistic simulations. The study highlights the need for significant adjustments to the current network, as it does not effectively capture biodiversity patterns. It predicts a strong shift in conservation needs along latitudes and elevations as plants migrate upslope and their distribution shrinks. While increasing species, trait, and evolutionary diversity, migration could also threaten 70% of the resident flora. The future European reserve network will need to ensure strong elevation and latitudinal connections to complementarily protect multifaceted biodiversity beyond national borders. The study uses species distribution models, trait and phylogenetic information, and systematic conservation planning to identify conservation priorities and areas of relative stability. It suggests that local and regional conservation strategies should focus on protecting multifaceted diversity and its irreplaceability, with a particular emphasis on the Mediterranean Alps. The current conservation network is insufficient and requires adaptations to operate optimally under novel environmental conditions. The success of future European planning will depend on effective conservation coordination between EU members and non-members. Challenges include data availability and the need for more comprehensive ecological data to achieve comprehensive conservation planning.
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