Transnational conservation to anticipate future plant shifts in Europe

Transnational conservation to anticipate future plant shifts in Europe

22 January 2024 | Yohann Chauvier-Mendes, Laura J. Pollock, Peter H. Verburg, Dirk N. Karger, Loïc Pellissier, Sébastien Lavergne, Niklaus E. Zimmermann & Wilfried Thuiller
A study published in Nature Ecology & Evolution highlights the need for a resilient transnational conservation network in the European Alps to protect biodiversity under climate change. The current European reserve network is insufficient to safeguard the region's flora by 2080, as species are expected to migrate upslope and shrink their distribution. The study predicts a strong shift in conservation needs over time, with increased emphasis on higher elevations and latitudes. While increasing species, trait, and evolutionary diversity, migration could threaten 70% of the resident flora. The European Alps, a key hub of the transnational network, host ~4,500 vascular plant species, including 400 endemic species. The study uses semi-mechanistic simulations to assess the robustness of the current network and its potential expansion under different scenarios. Results show that the Alps are predicted to lose between -7% and 16% of their multifaceted diversity and uniqueness by 2080, with losses primarily at low elevations and gains at higher elevations. The study emphasizes the need for strong elevation and latitudinal connections in the future reserve network to protect biodiversity beyond national borders. The European Union aims to protect 30% of its land by 2030 through a resilient transnational network, aligning with the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework. The study also highlights the importance of considering multifaceted diversity, including species, phylogenetic, and functional endemism, in conservation planning. The results suggest that the current network is insufficient and requires adaptation to operate optimally under novel environmental conditions. The study recommends increasing reserve connectivity between elevation strata and focusing on areas of relative stability in the Mediterranean Alps. The findings underscore the need for a coordinated transnational conservation strategy to protect the Alps' biodiversity, emphasizing the importance of protecting both local and regional conservation priorities. The study also highlights the challenges of data availability and the need for further research to improve conservation planning. The study concludes that a comprehensive conservation strategy is essential to ensure the resilience of the European Alps' biodiversity in the face of climate change and other environmental pressures.A study published in Nature Ecology & Evolution highlights the need for a resilient transnational conservation network in the European Alps to protect biodiversity under climate change. The current European reserve network is insufficient to safeguard the region's flora by 2080, as species are expected to migrate upslope and shrink their distribution. The study predicts a strong shift in conservation needs over time, with increased emphasis on higher elevations and latitudes. While increasing species, trait, and evolutionary diversity, migration could threaten 70% of the resident flora. The European Alps, a key hub of the transnational network, host ~4,500 vascular plant species, including 400 endemic species. The study uses semi-mechanistic simulations to assess the robustness of the current network and its potential expansion under different scenarios. Results show that the Alps are predicted to lose between -7% and 16% of their multifaceted diversity and uniqueness by 2080, with losses primarily at low elevations and gains at higher elevations. The study emphasizes the need for strong elevation and latitudinal connections in the future reserve network to protect biodiversity beyond national borders. The European Union aims to protect 30% of its land by 2030 through a resilient transnational network, aligning with the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework. The study also highlights the importance of considering multifaceted diversity, including species, phylogenetic, and functional endemism, in conservation planning. The results suggest that the current network is insufficient and requires adaptation to operate optimally under novel environmental conditions. The study recommends increasing reserve connectivity between elevation strata and focusing on areas of relative stability in the Mediterranean Alps. The findings underscore the need for a coordinated transnational conservation strategy to protect the Alps' biodiversity, emphasizing the importance of protecting both local and regional conservation priorities. The study also highlights the challenges of data availability and the need for further research to improve conservation planning. The study concludes that a comprehensive conservation strategy is essential to ensure the resilience of the European Alps' biodiversity in the face of climate change and other environmental pressures.
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[slides and audio] Transnational conservation to anticipate future plant shifts in Europe