1 MAY 2005 | PAVEL YA. GROISMAN, RICHARD W. KNIGHT, DAVID R. EASTERLING AND THOMAS R. KARL, GABRIELE C. HEGERL, VYACHESLAV N. RAZUVAEV
The paper examines trends in intense precipitation across global climate records, focusing on changes in very heavy and extreme precipitation events. Analysis of data from over half the world's land area shows that these events have increased in frequency and intensity, particularly in extratropical regions like the United States. Empirical evidence and climate model projections indicate a higher probability of intense precipitation events as greenhouse gas concentrations rise. However, reliable conclusions about changes in very heavy and extreme precipitation are limited to regions with dense monitoring networks due to the small spatial correlation radius of these events.
The study reviews past research on heavy and very heavy precipitation, highlighting that changes in precipitation intensity are more pronounced than changes in mean precipitation. Analysis of data from the contiguous United States and other regions shows significant increases in heavy and very heavy precipitation events over the 20th century, with trends becoming more pronounced in recent decades. The study also discusses the methodology used to analyze precipitation data, including area-averaging techniques and the use of statistical tests to detect trends.
Regional analyses reveal significant increases in very heavy precipitation in areas such as the European part of the former USSR, northern Europe, the Pacific coast of northwestern North America, southeastern and southwestern Australia, South Africa, eastern Brazil and Uruguay, and central Mexico. These increases are often statistically significant and are linked to climate change. The study also compares observed trends with model projections, showing that climate models predict an increase in precipitation intensity with global warming, with heavy and very heavy precipitation events showing more pronounced changes than mean precipitation.
The paper concludes that changes in intense precipitation are more likely as global temperatures rise, and that these changes have significant implications for the environment and economy. The study emphasizes the importance of dense monitoring networks for accurately detecting changes in very heavy and extreme precipitation events.The paper examines trends in intense precipitation across global climate records, focusing on changes in very heavy and extreme precipitation events. Analysis of data from over half the world's land area shows that these events have increased in frequency and intensity, particularly in extratropical regions like the United States. Empirical evidence and climate model projections indicate a higher probability of intense precipitation events as greenhouse gas concentrations rise. However, reliable conclusions about changes in very heavy and extreme precipitation are limited to regions with dense monitoring networks due to the small spatial correlation radius of these events.
The study reviews past research on heavy and very heavy precipitation, highlighting that changes in precipitation intensity are more pronounced than changes in mean precipitation. Analysis of data from the contiguous United States and other regions shows significant increases in heavy and very heavy precipitation events over the 20th century, with trends becoming more pronounced in recent decades. The study also discusses the methodology used to analyze precipitation data, including area-averaging techniques and the use of statistical tests to detect trends.
Regional analyses reveal significant increases in very heavy precipitation in areas such as the European part of the former USSR, northern Europe, the Pacific coast of northwestern North America, southeastern and southwestern Australia, South Africa, eastern Brazil and Uruguay, and central Mexico. These increases are often statistically significant and are linked to climate change. The study also compares observed trends with model projections, showing that climate models predict an increase in precipitation intensity with global warming, with heavy and very heavy precipitation events showing more pronounced changes than mean precipitation.
The paper concludes that changes in intense precipitation are more likely as global temperatures rise, and that these changes have significant implications for the environment and economy. The study emphasizes the importance of dense monitoring networks for accurately detecting changes in very heavy and extreme precipitation events.