1 APRIL 2005 | PANMAO ZHAI, XUEBIN ZHANG AND HUI WAN, XIAOHUA PAN
This study analyzes trends in total precipitation and extreme daily precipitation over China from 1951 to 2000 using a new daily precipitation dataset of 740 stations and advanced trend detection techniques. The results show little overall trend in total precipitation, but distinct regional and seasonal patterns. Annual total precipitation has significantly decreased in southern northeast China, north China, and the Sichuan Basin, but increased in western China, the Yangtze River valley, and the southeastern coast. In western China, precipitation increases are observed in both cold and warm seasons, while in eastern China, trends differ by season. Spring precipitation has increased in southern northeast China and north China but decreased in the mid-reach of the Yangtze River. Summer precipitation trends are similar to annual totals. Autumn precipitation has generally decreased throughout eastern China, and winter precipitation has decreased in northern eastern China but increased in the south. The number of rain days has significantly decreased across most of China, except in northwest China. Precipitation intensity has significantly increased, suggesting that the increase in western China is due to both increased frequency and intensity of precipitation. In eastern China, the impact of reduced rain days is more dominant in the north, while increased intensity prevails in the south. Regions with increasing precipitation trends have higher than normal frequencies of extreme precipitation events. Significant increases in extreme precipitation are observed in western China, the mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze River, and parts of southwest and south China. A significant decrease in extremes is observed in north China and the Sichuan Basin. Trends in the number of extremes and total non-extreme precipitation are generally in phase, except in southwest China where an increase in extreme events is associated with a decrease in total non-extreme precipitation. The study highlights the importance of understanding the relationship between changes in total and extreme precipitation, as well as the impact of these changes on regional climate and water resources. The findings suggest that changes in the East Asian summer monsoon system may be responsible for the observed precipitation trends in eastern China. The study provides a comprehensive analysis of precipitation trends and their implications for climate change and water resource management in China.This study analyzes trends in total precipitation and extreme daily precipitation over China from 1951 to 2000 using a new daily precipitation dataset of 740 stations and advanced trend detection techniques. The results show little overall trend in total precipitation, but distinct regional and seasonal patterns. Annual total precipitation has significantly decreased in southern northeast China, north China, and the Sichuan Basin, but increased in western China, the Yangtze River valley, and the southeastern coast. In western China, precipitation increases are observed in both cold and warm seasons, while in eastern China, trends differ by season. Spring precipitation has increased in southern northeast China and north China but decreased in the mid-reach of the Yangtze River. Summer precipitation trends are similar to annual totals. Autumn precipitation has generally decreased throughout eastern China, and winter precipitation has decreased in northern eastern China but increased in the south. The number of rain days has significantly decreased across most of China, except in northwest China. Precipitation intensity has significantly increased, suggesting that the increase in western China is due to both increased frequency and intensity of precipitation. In eastern China, the impact of reduced rain days is more dominant in the north, while increased intensity prevails in the south. Regions with increasing precipitation trends have higher than normal frequencies of extreme precipitation events. Significant increases in extreme precipitation are observed in western China, the mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze River, and parts of southwest and south China. A significant decrease in extremes is observed in north China and the Sichuan Basin. Trends in the number of extremes and total non-extreme precipitation are generally in phase, except in southwest China where an increase in extreme events is associated with a decrease in total non-extreme precipitation. The study highlights the importance of understanding the relationship between changes in total and extreme precipitation, as well as the impact of these changes on regional climate and water resources. The findings suggest that changes in the East Asian summer monsoon system may be responsible for the observed precipitation trends in eastern China. The study provides a comprehensive analysis of precipitation trends and their implications for climate change and water resource management in China.