Trump, Brexit, and the Rise of Populism: Economic Have-Nots and Cultural Backlash

Trump, Brexit, and the Rise of Populism: Economic Have-Nots and Cultural Backlash

August 2016 | Ronald F. Inglehart and Pippa Norris
The rise of populist parties in Western societies has sparked significant debate, with two main theories explaining their growing support: the economic insecurity perspective and the cultural backlash thesis. The economic insecurity perspective argues that populist support is driven by rising inequality and economic hardship, particularly among the working class and the less educated. The cultural backlash thesis suggests that populist support is fueled by a reaction against progressive cultural changes, especially among older generations and traditionalists. This study uses data from the 2014 Chapel Hill Expert Survey (CHES) to analyze the ideological positions of 268 political parties across 31 European countries. It also examines the European Social Survey (ESS) data from 2002-2014 to explore the impact of economic insecurity and cultural values on voting behavior. The findings support the cultural backlash thesis, showing that populist support is strongest among older generations, men, the less educated, and those with traditional values. Populist leaders such as Donald Trump, Marine Le Pen, and Geert Wilders have gained significant support, often by appealing to anti-establishment, nationalist, and xenophobic sentiments. These parties have entered government coalitions in several Western democracies and have significantly influenced political discourse and policy agendas. The study highlights the complex interplay between economic and cultural factors in shaping populist support, suggesting that while economic insecurity plays a role, cultural values are a more consistent predictor of populist voting behavior. The cultural backlash thesis is further supported by the observation that older generations and traditionalists are more likely to reject progressive cultural values, leading to a backlash against these changes. This has resulted in a growing divide between traditionalist values and cosmopolitan liberal values, with populist parties often positioned on the cultural right. The study concludes that cultural values, combined with social and demographic factors, provide the most consistent explanation for populist support, highlighting the importance of traditional values in the political landscape of Western societies.The rise of populist parties in Western societies has sparked significant debate, with two main theories explaining their growing support: the economic insecurity perspective and the cultural backlash thesis. The economic insecurity perspective argues that populist support is driven by rising inequality and economic hardship, particularly among the working class and the less educated. The cultural backlash thesis suggests that populist support is fueled by a reaction against progressive cultural changes, especially among older generations and traditionalists. This study uses data from the 2014 Chapel Hill Expert Survey (CHES) to analyze the ideological positions of 268 political parties across 31 European countries. It also examines the European Social Survey (ESS) data from 2002-2014 to explore the impact of economic insecurity and cultural values on voting behavior. The findings support the cultural backlash thesis, showing that populist support is strongest among older generations, men, the less educated, and those with traditional values. Populist leaders such as Donald Trump, Marine Le Pen, and Geert Wilders have gained significant support, often by appealing to anti-establishment, nationalist, and xenophobic sentiments. These parties have entered government coalitions in several Western democracies and have significantly influenced political discourse and policy agendas. The study highlights the complex interplay between economic and cultural factors in shaping populist support, suggesting that while economic insecurity plays a role, cultural values are a more consistent predictor of populist voting behavior. The cultural backlash thesis is further supported by the observation that older generations and traditionalists are more likely to reject progressive cultural values, leading to a backlash against these changes. This has resulted in a growing divide between traditionalist values and cosmopolitan liberal values, with populist parties often positioned on the cultural right. The study concludes that cultural values, combined with social and demographic factors, provide the most consistent explanation for populist support, highlighting the importance of traditional values in the political landscape of Western societies.
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