Uncertainty, stock and commodity prices during the Ukraine-Russia war *

Uncertainty, stock and commodity prices during the Ukraine-Russia war *

2024 | Whelsy Boungou, Alhonita Yatié
This article investigates the impact of the Ukraine-Russia war on uncertainties and how these uncertainties affect stock market performance and commodity prices. Using the Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) index, 96 stock market indices, and prices of 67 commodities from January 2022 to April 2023, the study finds that the war increases uncertainties, which negatively impact global financial markets and lead to higher commodity prices. The negative shocks tend to be smaller as the war persists longer. The responses to war-induced uncertainties are stronger in Europe and America. The findings provide unique evidence on the impact of war on uncertainties and their transmission to stock market performance and commodity prices. The study also highlights the heterogeneity of stock market index responses across regions and the dynamics of these responses over time. Overall, the results suggest that the war-induced uncertainties have significant implications for financial markets and commodity prices, with energy commodities being the most sensitive to rising uncertainties.This article investigates the impact of the Ukraine-Russia war on uncertainties and how these uncertainties affect stock market performance and commodity prices. Using the Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) index, 96 stock market indices, and prices of 67 commodities from January 2022 to April 2023, the study finds that the war increases uncertainties, which negatively impact global financial markets and lead to higher commodity prices. The negative shocks tend to be smaller as the war persists longer. The responses to war-induced uncertainties are stronger in Europe and America. The findings provide unique evidence on the impact of war on uncertainties and their transmission to stock market performance and commodity prices. The study also highlights the heterogeneity of stock market index responses across regions and the dynamics of these responses over time. Overall, the results suggest that the war-induced uncertainties have significant implications for financial markets and commodity prices, with energy commodities being the most sensitive to rising uncertainties.
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Understanding Uncertainty%2C stock and commodity prices during the Ukraine-Russia war