Uncertainty, stock and commodity prices during the Ukraine-Russia war *

Uncertainty, stock and commodity prices during the Ukraine-Russia war *

2024 | Whelsy Boungou, Alhonita Yatié
This article investigates the impact of the Ukraine-Russia war on global financial markets and commodity prices, focusing on how uncertainty affects stock market indices and commodity prices. Using the Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) index and a new index, the Russia-Ukraine War Economic Sanctions News Sentiment Index (RUWESsent), the study analyzes data from January 2022 to April 2023. The findings show that the war increases uncertainty, which negatively affects global financial markets and leads to higher commodity prices. These negative effects are more pronounced in Europe and America, and the impact diminishes as the war persists. The study also finds that energy commodities are most sensitive to rising uncertainties, with higher prices resulting from supply disruptions and increased production costs. The analysis highlights the importance of understanding the transmission of war-related uncertainties to financial markets and commodity prices, providing new insights into the broader economic implications of conflicts beyond the war zones. The results suggest that policymakers and investors should consider the long-term effects of war on financial markets and commodity prices, and implement strategies to mitigate the risks associated with uncertainty. The study contributes to the literature by providing empirical evidence of the impact of war on uncertainties and how these uncertainties affect stock market performance and commodity prices.This article investigates the impact of the Ukraine-Russia war on global financial markets and commodity prices, focusing on how uncertainty affects stock market indices and commodity prices. Using the Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) index and a new index, the Russia-Ukraine War Economic Sanctions News Sentiment Index (RUWESsent), the study analyzes data from January 2022 to April 2023. The findings show that the war increases uncertainty, which negatively affects global financial markets and leads to higher commodity prices. These negative effects are more pronounced in Europe and America, and the impact diminishes as the war persists. The study also finds that energy commodities are most sensitive to rising uncertainties, with higher prices resulting from supply disruptions and increased production costs. The analysis highlights the importance of understanding the transmission of war-related uncertainties to financial markets and commodity prices, providing new insights into the broader economic implications of conflicts beyond the war zones. The results suggest that policymakers and investors should consider the long-term effects of war on financial markets and commodity prices, and implement strategies to mitigate the risks associated with uncertainty. The study contributes to the literature by providing empirical evidence of the impact of war on uncertainties and how these uncertainties affect stock market performance and commodity prices.
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