Uncertainty Quantification and Interpretability for Clinical Trial Approval Prediction

Uncertainty Quantification and Interpretability for Clinical Trial Approval Prediction

Submitted 20 January 2024 Accepted 17 March 2024 Published 15 April 2024 | Yingzhou Lu††, Tianyi Chen††, Nan Hao3, Capucine Van Rechem1, Jintai Chen4, and Tianfan Fu††
This paper addresses the challenge of uncertainty quantification and interpretability in clinical trial approval predictions. The authors propose a selective classification (SC) approach integrated with the Hierarchical Interaction Network (HINT), a state-of-the-art model for clinical trial prediction. SC allows the model to abstain from making predictions for ambiguous or low-confidence samples, enhancing both accuracy and interpretability. The method is evaluated on a comprehensive dataset, showing significant improvements in precision-recall metrics across all phases of clinical trials. The results demonstrate that the proposed approach not only enhances the model's performance but also provides valuable insights into the decision-making process, making it a valuable tool for clinical trial management and resource allocation.This paper addresses the challenge of uncertainty quantification and interpretability in clinical trial approval predictions. The authors propose a selective classification (SC) approach integrated with the Hierarchical Interaction Network (HINT), a state-of-the-art model for clinical trial prediction. SC allows the model to abstain from making predictions for ambiguous or low-confidence samples, enhancing both accuracy and interpretability. The method is evaluated on a comprehensive dataset, showing significant improvements in precision-recall metrics across all phases of clinical trials. The results demonstrate that the proposed approach not only enhances the model's performance but also provides valuable insights into the decision-making process, making it a valuable tool for clinical trial management and resource allocation.
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[slides and audio] Uncertainty Quantification and Interpretability for Clinical Trial Approval Prediction