The article "Unprecedented 21st Century Drought Risk in the American Southwest and Central Plains" by Benjamin I. Cook, Toby R. Ault, and Jason E. Smerdon examines the projected increase in drought severity in the American Southwest and Central Plains due to climate change. These regions have experienced extended Medieval-era droughts that were more persistent than any historical event, providing a benchmark for future drought risks. Using empirical drought reconstructions and soil moisture metrics from 17 advanced general circulation models (GCMs), the authors show that the later half of the 21st century will be significantly drier compared to the 20th century and earlier paleoclimatic intervals. This drying is consistent across most models and moisture balance variables, indicating a coherent and robust response to warming. Future drought risk is expected to exceed even the driest centuries of the Medieval Climate Anomaly (1100–1300 CE) under both moderate (RCP 4.5) and high (RCP 8.5) emissions scenarios, leading to unprecedented drought conditions during the last millennium. The study highlights the importance of placing future drought projections within the context of observed and reconstructed natural hydroclimate variability, emphasizing the need for adaptation strategies to manage ecological and anthropogenic water needs in these regions.The article "Unprecedented 21st Century Drought Risk in the American Southwest and Central Plains" by Benjamin I. Cook, Toby R. Ault, and Jason E. Smerdon examines the projected increase in drought severity in the American Southwest and Central Plains due to climate change. These regions have experienced extended Medieval-era droughts that were more persistent than any historical event, providing a benchmark for future drought risks. Using empirical drought reconstructions and soil moisture metrics from 17 advanced general circulation models (GCMs), the authors show that the later half of the 21st century will be significantly drier compared to the 20th century and earlier paleoclimatic intervals. This drying is consistent across most models and moisture balance variables, indicating a coherent and robust response to warming. Future drought risk is expected to exceed even the driest centuries of the Medieval Climate Anomaly (1100–1300 CE) under both moderate (RCP 4.5) and high (RCP 8.5) emissions scenarios, leading to unprecedented drought conditions during the last millennium. The study highlights the importance of placing future drought projections within the context of observed and reconstructed natural hydroclimate variability, emphasizing the need for adaptation strategies to manage ecological and anthropogenic water needs in these regions.