Global warming increases the risk of civil war in sub-Saharan Africa, according to a study by Marshall B. Burke, Edward Miguel, Shanker Satyanath, John A. Dykema, and David B. Lobell. The research finds a strong historical link between civil war and temperature in Africa, with warmer years leading to increased conflict likelihood. Combining this with climate projections, the study estimates a 54% increase in armed conflict incidence by 2030, potentially resulting in an additional 393,000 battle deaths. The study highlights the need for policy reforms to address rising temperatures in African governments and foreign aid donors. Sub-Saharan Africa has experienced over two-thirds of civil conflicts since 1960, causing millions of deaths and significant human suffering. Previous research has linked economic fluctuations to conflict risk, and recent studies suggest climate change could exacerbate instability in already volatile regions. However, the relationship between climate change and conflict remains uncertain, with most studies focusing on precipitation. While precipitation is important for agriculture, climate models show uncertainty in future precipitation changes. In contrast, temperature projections are more consistent, and recent studies emphasize the role of temperature in explaining past agricultural and economic variations in Africa. The study uses historical climate data to show that temperature fluctuations significantly increase conflict incidence. A 1°C temperature increase leads to a 4.5% increase in civil war in the same year and a 0.9% increase in the next year. The results are robust to the inclusion of precipitation and controls for income and democracy. Climate projections suggest a 5.9% median increase in conflict incidence across Africa by 2030, corresponding to a 54% rise in the average likelihood of conflict. If future conflicts are as deadly as recent ones, this could result in 393,000 additional battle deaths by 2030. The study also considers the combined effects of climate, economic growth, and democratization. While economic and political factors can influence conflict, the temperature effect remains significant. The study suggests that improving agricultural resilience to extreme heat could help reduce conflict risk. Additionally, implementing insurance schemes and foreign aid contingent on climate risk indicators could help mitigate conflict risks. The findings highlight the urgent need for policies to address the impacts of climate change on conflict in Africa.Global warming increases the risk of civil war in sub-Saharan Africa, according to a study by Marshall B. Burke, Edward Miguel, Shanker Satyanath, John A. Dykema, and David B. Lobell. The research finds a strong historical link between civil war and temperature in Africa, with warmer years leading to increased conflict likelihood. Combining this with climate projections, the study estimates a 54% increase in armed conflict incidence by 2030, potentially resulting in an additional 393,000 battle deaths. The study highlights the need for policy reforms to address rising temperatures in African governments and foreign aid donors. Sub-Saharan Africa has experienced over two-thirds of civil conflicts since 1960, causing millions of deaths and significant human suffering. Previous research has linked economic fluctuations to conflict risk, and recent studies suggest climate change could exacerbate instability in already volatile regions. However, the relationship between climate change and conflict remains uncertain, with most studies focusing on precipitation. While precipitation is important for agriculture, climate models show uncertainty in future precipitation changes. In contrast, temperature projections are more consistent, and recent studies emphasize the role of temperature in explaining past agricultural and economic variations in Africa. The study uses historical climate data to show that temperature fluctuations significantly increase conflict incidence. A 1°C temperature increase leads to a 4.5% increase in civil war in the same year and a 0.9% increase in the next year. The results are robust to the inclusion of precipitation and controls for income and democracy. Climate projections suggest a 5.9% median increase in conflict incidence across Africa by 2030, corresponding to a 54% rise in the average likelihood of conflict. If future conflicts are as deadly as recent ones, this could result in 393,000 additional battle deaths by 2030. The study also considers the combined effects of climate, economic growth, and democratization. While economic and political factors can influence conflict, the temperature effect remains significant. The study suggests that improving agricultural resilience to extreme heat could help reduce conflict risk. Additionally, implementing insurance schemes and foreign aid contingent on climate risk indicators could help mitigate conflict risks. The findings highlight the urgent need for policies to address the impacts of climate change on conflict in Africa.