Dani Rodrik's 1998 paper "Why Do More Open Economies Have Bigger Governments?" examines the positive correlation between economic openness and government size. The paper argues that governments in more open economies expand their role to provide social insurance against external risk. This is supported by empirical evidence showing that openness, measured by trade as a share of GDP, is positively correlated with government spending, regardless of country income level or data source. The relationship is strongest when external risk, such as terms-of-trade volatility and export concentration, is high.
The paper provides evidence that openness in the early 1960s is a significant predictor of subsequent government consumption growth. It also shows that government spending, particularly in social security and welfare, is more closely related to external risk than overall government consumption. The paper challenges the assumption that open economies require less government intervention, arguing instead that they need more government to mitigate the risks associated with trade exposure.
The paper also tests alternative explanations for the correlation, such as the role of country size, debt levels, inflation, and trade taxes. However, these factors do not fully explain the relationship. The paper concludes that the key explanation is the role of external risk, with government spending acting as a form of social insurance. This is supported by a simple general equilibrium model and empirical regressions showing that openness interacts with external risk to significantly affect government spending.
The paper also finds that the relationship between openness and government size is robust across different data sets and time periods. It further shows that the effect of openness on government consumption is strongest in countries with more concentrated exports and that social security and welfare spending is more closely related to external risk than overall government consumption. The paper concludes that openness increases government size because it exposes economies to greater external risk, and governments respond by expanding their role to mitigate this risk.Dani Rodrik's 1998 paper "Why Do More Open Economies Have Bigger Governments?" examines the positive correlation between economic openness and government size. The paper argues that governments in more open economies expand their role to provide social insurance against external risk. This is supported by empirical evidence showing that openness, measured by trade as a share of GDP, is positively correlated with government spending, regardless of country income level or data source. The relationship is strongest when external risk, such as terms-of-trade volatility and export concentration, is high.
The paper provides evidence that openness in the early 1960s is a significant predictor of subsequent government consumption growth. It also shows that government spending, particularly in social security and welfare, is more closely related to external risk than overall government consumption. The paper challenges the assumption that open economies require less government intervention, arguing instead that they need more government to mitigate the risks associated with trade exposure.
The paper also tests alternative explanations for the correlation, such as the role of country size, debt levels, inflation, and trade taxes. However, these factors do not fully explain the relationship. The paper concludes that the key explanation is the role of external risk, with government spending acting as a form of social insurance. This is supported by a simple general equilibrium model and empirical regressions showing that openness interacts with external risk to significantly affect government spending.
The paper also finds that the relationship between openness and government size is robust across different data sets and time periods. It further shows that the effect of openness on government consumption is strongest in countries with more concentrated exports and that social security and welfare spending is more closely related to external risk than overall government consumption. The paper concludes that openness increases government size because it exposes economies to greater external risk, and governments respond by expanding their role to mitigate this risk.