2014 October 10; 346(6206): 234–237 | Patrick Gerland, Adrian E. Raftery, Hana Ševčíková, Nan Li, Danan Gu, Thomas Spoorenberg, Leontine Alkema, Bailey K. Fosdick, Jennifer Chunn, Nevena Lalic, Guimaro Bay, Thomas Buettner, Gerhard K. Heilig, and John Wilmoth
The United Nations has released new population projections based on data up to 2012 and a Bayesian probabilistic methodology. These projections indicate that world population is unlikely to stabilize by the end of this century, with an 80% probability that it will increase from the current 7.2 billion to between 9.6 and 12.3 billion in 2100. The primary driver of this growth is expected to be Africa, due to higher fertility rates and a recent slowdown in the decline of fertility. The ratio of working-age people to older people is also projected to decline significantly in all countries, even those currently with young populations. The probabilistic projections provide a more nuanced understanding of future population trends compared to traditional high and low scenarios, which often overstate uncertainty. The findings highlight the need for greater investments in family planning and education to mitigate the challenges posed by rapid population growth, such as environmental depletion, economic strain, and social unrest.The United Nations has released new population projections based on data up to 2012 and a Bayesian probabilistic methodology. These projections indicate that world population is unlikely to stabilize by the end of this century, with an 80% probability that it will increase from the current 7.2 billion to between 9.6 and 12.3 billion in 2100. The primary driver of this growth is expected to be Africa, due to higher fertility rates and a recent slowdown in the decline of fertility. The ratio of working-age people to older people is also projected to decline significantly in all countries, even those currently with young populations. The probabilistic projections provide a more nuanced understanding of future population trends compared to traditional high and low scenarios, which often overstate uncertainty. The findings highlight the need for greater investments in family planning and education to mitigate the challenges posed by rapid population growth, such as environmental depletion, economic strain, and social unrest.