Global crop production needs to double by 2050 to meet rising demand from population growth, dietary shifts, and biofuels. However, current yield trends for major crops—maize, rice, wheat, and soybean—are insufficient to achieve this goal. These crops account for two-thirds of global agricultural calories, and their yields are increasing at 1.6%, 1.0%, 0.9%, and 1.3% per year, respectively. To double production by 2050, yields would need to increase at 2.4% per year. At current rates, global production in these crops would only increase by 67%, 42%, 38%, and 55%, respectively, which is far below what is needed. The study uses data from 2.5 million agricultural statistics across 13,500 political units to analyze yield trends. It finds that yields are increasing in some regions but not at the required rate. For example, in North and Central America, some areas show yield increases of 2.4% per year, but others show declines. In South America, most maize areas are achieving doubling rates, but population growth may offset these gains. In Europe, maize yields are increasing in some countries but declining in others. In Africa, maize yields are increasing in some regions but declining in others, with significant implications for food security. In Asia and Australasia, rice and wheat yields are increasing but not at the required rate to meet future demand. The study highlights the need for targeted investments to increase yields, particularly in regions where yields are below the required rate. It also notes that current yield trends may not be sufficient to meet future food demands without expanding croplands, which could have significant environmental costs. However, more efficient use of existing arable land and sustainable intensification practices could help close yield gaps. The study concludes that global food security is at risk unless yield growth rates are significantly increased.Global crop production needs to double by 2050 to meet rising demand from population growth, dietary shifts, and biofuels. However, current yield trends for major crops—maize, rice, wheat, and soybean—are insufficient to achieve this goal. These crops account for two-thirds of global agricultural calories, and their yields are increasing at 1.6%, 1.0%, 0.9%, and 1.3% per year, respectively. To double production by 2050, yields would need to increase at 2.4% per year. At current rates, global production in these crops would only increase by 67%, 42%, 38%, and 55%, respectively, which is far below what is needed. The study uses data from 2.5 million agricultural statistics across 13,500 political units to analyze yield trends. It finds that yields are increasing in some regions but not at the required rate. For example, in North and Central America, some areas show yield increases of 2.4% per year, but others show declines. In South America, most maize areas are achieving doubling rates, but population growth may offset these gains. In Europe, maize yields are increasing in some countries but declining in others. In Africa, maize yields are increasing in some regions but declining in others, with significant implications for food security. In Asia and Australasia, rice and wheat yields are increasing but not at the required rate to meet future demand. The study highlights the need for targeted investments to increase yields, particularly in regions where yields are below the required rate. It also notes that current yield trends may not be sufficient to meet future food demands without expanding croplands, which could have significant environmental costs. However, more efficient use of existing arable land and sustainable intensification practices could help close yield gaps. The study concludes that global food security is at risk unless yield growth rates are significantly increased.